NBER Working Papers

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24062: Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation

Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova and John van Reenen

24061: The Effect of Education and School Quality on Female Crime

Javier Cano-Urbina and Lance Lochner

24060: Student Loan Nudges: Experimental Evidence on Borrowing and Educational Attainment

Benjamin Marx and Lesley Turner

24059: The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules

Charles Engel, Dohyeon Lee, Chang Liu, Chenxin Liu and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

24058: Learning from Coworkers: Peer Effects on Individual Investment Decisions

Paige Ouimet and Geoffrey Tate

24057: Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?

Olivier Blanchard

24056: US Exports and Employment

Robert Feenstra, Hong Ma and Yuan Xu

24055: Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It

Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein

24054: Personalized Medicine When Physicians Induce Demand

David H. Howard, Jason Hockenberry and Guy David

24053: The Use and Misuse of Patent Data: Issues for Corporate Finance and Beyond

Josh Lerner and Amit Seru

24052: Intrinsic Openness and Endogenous Institutional Quality

Yang Jiao and Shang-Jin Wei

24051: Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade

Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

24050: Moral Hazard Misconceptions: the Case of the Greenspan Put

Gideon Bornstein and Guido Lorenzoni

24049: Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France

Philippe Aghion, Maxime Gravoueille, Matthieu Lequien and Stefanie Stantcheva

24048: Fresh Air Eases Work – The Effect of Air Quality on Individual Investor Activity

Steffen Meyer and Michaela Pagel

24047: Are Poor Individuals Mainly Found in Poor Households? Evidence using Nutrition Data for Africa

Caitlin Brown, Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle

24046: Fast and Slow Learning From Reviews

Daron Acemoglu, Ali Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian and Asuman Ozdaglar

24045: Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations

Sreyoshi Das, Camelia Kuhnen and Stefan Nagel

24044: Old-age Labor Force Participation in Germany: What Explains the Trend Reversal among Older Men? And What the Steady Increase among Women?

Axel Börsch-Supan and Irene Ferrari

24043: Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought

N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis

24042: Family Health Behaviors

Itzik Fadlon and Torben Nielsen

24041: Start What You Finish! Ex Ante Risk and Schooling Investments in the Presence of Dynamic Complementarities

Andrew Foster and Esther Gehrke

24040: Upstream, Downstream: Diffusion and Impacts of the Universal Product Code

Emek Basker and Timothy Simcoe

24039: Are Negative Nominal Interest Rates Expansionary?

Gauti Eggertsson, Ragnar Juelsrud and Ella Getz Wold

24038: Service-level Selection: Strategic Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage in Response to Risk Adjustment

Sungchul Park, Anirban Basu, Norma Coe and Fahad Khalil

24037: The Employer Penalty, Voluntary Compliance, and the Size Distribution of Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Small Businesses

Casey Mulligan

24036: The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China

Shuai Chen, Paulina Oliva and Peng Zhang

24035: Identifying Sources of Inefficiency in Health Care

Amitabh Chandra and Doug Staiger

24034: The Effects of Land Markets on Resource Allocation and Agricultural Productivity

Chaoran Chen, Diego Restuccia and Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

24033: Horizontal Equity Effects in Energy Regulation

Carolyn Fischer and William Pizer

24032: The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off

Monica Martinez-Bravo, Gerard Padró I Miquel, Nancy Qian and Yang Yao

24031: Sovereign Risk Contagion

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai and Sandra Lizarazo

24030: Probabilistic States versus Multiple Certainties: The Obstacle of Uncertainty in Contingent Reasoning

Alejandro Martínez-Marquina, Muriel Niederle and Emanuel Vespa

24029: Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects

Tarek Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent and Ahmed Tahoun

24028: Effects and Mechanisms of CEOs Quality in Public Education

Victor Lavy, Genia Rachkovski and Adi Boiko

24027: Measuring Global Value Chains

Robert Johnson

24026: Characterizing the Drug Development Pipeline for Precision Medicines

Amitabh Chandra, Craig Garthwaite and Ariel Dora Stern

24025: Pass-Through of Own and Rival Cost Shocks: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom

Erich Muehlegger and Richard Sweeney

24024: Bid Shading and Bidder Surplus in the U.S. Treasury Auction System

Ali Hortacsu, Jakub Kastl and Allen Zhang

24023: Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

24022: The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis

Robert Feenstra and Akira Sasahara

24021: Orphan Drug Designations as Valuable Intangible Assets for IPO Investors in Pharma-Biotech Companies

Philippe Gorry and Diego Useche

24020: The Information Pharms Race and Competitive Dynamics of Precision Medicine: Insights from Game Theory

Ernst R. Berndt and Mark R. Trusheim

24019: How Well Do Automated Linking Methods Perform? Lessons from U.S. Historical Data

Martha Bailey, Connor Cole, Morgan Henderson and Catherine Massey

24018: On the Economics of Audit Partner Tenure and Rotation: Evidence from PCAOB Data

Brandon Gipper, Luzi Hail and Christian Leuz

24017: How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice

Parag Pathak and Peng Shi

24016: The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation

Michael Bordo, Eric Monnet and Alain Naef

24015: Educational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America: Evidence from a Supply-Demand Framework

Sebastian Galiani, Guillermo Cruces, Pablo Acosta and Leonardo Gasparini

24014: Daily Price Limits and Destructive Market Behavior

Ting Chen, Zhenyu Gao, Jibao He, Wenxi Jiang and Wei Xiong

24013: The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Exporters and Multinational Firms

Anna Gumpert, Haishi Li, Andreas Moxnes, Natalia Ramondo and Felix Tintelnot

24012: Premium or Penalty? Labor Market Returns to Novice Public Sector Teachers

Juan Saavedra, Darío Maldonado, Lucrecia Santibanez and Luis Omar Herrera Prada

24011: Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

Shai Bernstein, Timothy McQuade and Richard R. Townsend

24010: Nowcasting the Local Economy: Using Yelp Data to Measure Economic Activity

Edward Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

24009: The Development Effects of the Extractive Colonial Economy: The Dutch Cultivation System in Java

Melissa Dell and Benjamin Olken

24008: Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible

John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew Shapiro and Christopher Tonetti

24007: Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

24006: Children, Time Allocation and Consumption Insurance

Richard Blundell, Luigi Pistaferri and Itay Saporta-Eksten

24005: The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland

Sigríður Benediktsdóttir, Gauti Eggertsson and Eggert Þórarinsson

24004: Measuring Success in Education: The Role of Effort on the Test Itself

Uri Gneezy, John List, Jeffrey Livingston, Sally Sadoff, Xiangdong Qin and Yang Xu

24003: When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido Imbens and Jeffrey Wooldridge

24002: Medicaid and Financial Health

Kenneth Brevoort, Daniel Grodzicki and Martin Hackmann

24001: Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics

Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson

24000: How Bargaining in Marriage drives Marriage Market Equilibrium

Robert Pollak

23999: CoCo Issuance and Bank Fragility

Stefan Avdjiev, Bilyana Bogdanova, Patrick Bolton, Wei Jiang and Anastasia Kartasheva

23998: A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Byoungchan Lee

23997: Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States

Samuel Bazzi, Martin Fiszbein and Mesay Gebresilasse

23996: Uniform Pricing in US Retail Chains

Stefano DellaVigna and Matthew Gentzkow

23995: Impact of Comprehensive Smoking Bans on the Health of Infants and Children

Kerry Anne McGeary, Dhaval Dave, Brandy J. Lipton and Timothy Roeper

23994: City Equilibrium with Borrowing Constraints: Structural Estimation and General Equilibrium Effects

Amine Ouazad and Romain Ranciere

23993: What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting

Lars Svensson

23992: Trade, Merchants, and the Lost Cities of the Bronze Age

Gojko Barjamovic, Thomas Chaney, A. Kerem Coşar and Ali Hortacsu

23991: Temperature Effects on Productivity and Factor Reallocation: Evidence from a Half Million Chinese Manufacturing Plants

Peng Zhang, Olivier Deschenes, Kyle Meng and Junjie Zhang

23990: Means-Testing Federal Health Entitlement Benefits

Andrew Samwick

23989: Therapeutic Translation of Genomic Science: Opportunities and limitations of GWAS

Manuel Hermosilla and Jorge A. Lemus

23988: Global Trade and the Dollar

Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath and Mikkel Plagborg-Moller

23987: Digital Innovation and the Distribution of Income

Dominique Guellec and Caroline Paunov

23986: Incentive Constrained Risk Sharing, Segmentation, and Asset Pricing

Bruno Biais, Johan Hombert and Pierre-Olivier Weill

23985: ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels

Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stefan Nagel and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

23984: Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies

Luigi Bocola and Guido Lorenzoni

23983: Exploding Asthma and ADHD Caseloads: The Role of Medicaid Managed Care

Anna Chorniy, Janet Currie and Lyudmyla Sonchak

23982: Parental Monitoring and Children's Internet Use: The Role of Information, Control, and Cues

Francisco Gallego, Ofer Malamud and Cristian Pop-Eleches

23981: Mutual Funds as Venture Capitalists? Evidence from Unicorns

Sergey Chernenko, Josh Lerner and Yao Zeng

23980: Taxing Humans: Pitfalls of the Mechanism Design Approach and Potential Resolutions

Alex Rees-Jones and Dmitry Taubinsky

23979: Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity

Margarida Duarte and Diego Restuccia

23978: Distortion by Audit: Evidence from Public Procurement

Maria Paula Gerardino, Stephan Litschig and Dina Pomeranz

23977: The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan

Martín Uribe

23976: Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden

Emmanuel Saez, Benjamin Schoefer and David Seim

23975: The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles

Graciela Kaminsky

23974: Informing SPR Policy Through Oil Futures and Inventory Dynamics

Richard Newell and Brian Prest

23973: The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata

Richard Newell and Brian Prest

23972: The Effects of Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Fang Yang

23971: Does Parents’ Access to Family Planning Increase Children’s Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X

Martha Bailey, Olga Malkova and Zoë McLaren

23970: Production Flexibility, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity

Burak Uras and Ping Wang

23969: A Tale of Two Cities: Cross-Border Casino Competition Between Detroit and Windsor

Juin-jen Chang, Ching-chong Lai and Ping Wang

23968: Identification in Macroeconomics

Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson

23967: The Economics of PIPEs

Jongha Lim, Michael Schwert and Michael Weisbach

23966: Technology and the Effectiveness of Regulatory Programs Over Time: Vehicle Emissions and Smog Checks with a Changing Fleet

Nicholas Sanders and Ryan Sandler

23965: Implications of Medicaid Financing Reform for State Government Budgets

Jeffrey Clemens and Benedic Ippolito

23964: Diagnosing the Italian Disease

Bruno Pellegrino and Luigi Zingales

23963: The Lifetime Costs of Bad Health

Mariacristina De Nardi, Svetlana Pashchenko and Ponpoje Porapakkarm