NBER Working Papers

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24362: The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low

Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran

24361: The Welfare Effects of Peer Entry in the Accommodation Market: The Case of Airbnb

Chiara Farronato and Andrey Fradkin

24360: People Management Skills, Employee Attrition, and Manager Rewards: An Empirical Analysis

Mitchell Hoffman and Steven Tadelis

24359: Seeing the Forest for the Trees? An Investigation of Network Knowledge

Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

24358: Learning When to Quit: An Empirical Model of Experimentation

Bernhard Ganglmair, Timothy Simcoe and Emanuele Tarantino

24357: Computerizing Industries and Routinizing Jobs: Explaining Trends in Aggregate Productivity

Sangmin Aum, Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

24356: Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net

Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri and Alessandra Voena

24355: Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?

Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman and Steven Lugauer

24354: Industry Input in Policymaking: Evidence from Medicare

David C. Chan, Jr and Michael J. Dickstein

24353: Protectionism and the Business Cycle

Alessandro Barattieri, Matteo Cacciatore and Fabio Ghironi

24352: Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence

Joshua Gans

24351: Does Integration Change Gender Attitudes? The Effect of Randomly Assigning Women to Traditionally Male Teams

Gordon Dahl, Andreas Kotsadam and Dan-Olof Rooth

24350: Waiting for the Payday? The Market for Startups and the Timing of Entrepreneurial Exit

Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri and Thomas Roende

24349: Carpooling and the Economics of Self-Driving Cars

Michael Ostrovsky and Michael Schwarz

24348: Intellectual Property Use in Middle Income Countries: The Case of Chile

Carsten Fink, Bronwyn Hall and Christian Helmers

24347: Effects of Expanding Health Screening on Treatment - What Should We Expect? What Can We Learn?

Rebecca Myerson, Darius Lakdawalla, Lisandro D. Colantonio, Monika Safford and David Meltzer

24346: Chinese Capital Market: An Empirical Overview

Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan and Jiang Wang

24345: The Industrialization of South America Revisited: Evidence from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia, 1890-2010

Gerardo della Paolera, Xavier H. Duran Amorocho and Aldo Musacchio

24344: What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?

Dani Rodrik

24343: Promotions and the Peter Principle

Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue

24342: The New Fama Puzzle

Matthieu Bussiere, Menzie Chinn, Laurent Ferrara and Jonas Heipertz

24341: The Effect of Education on Mortality and Health: Evidence from a Schooling Expansion in Romania

Ofer Malamud, Andreea Mitrut and Cristian Pop-Eleches

24340: Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza

David Slusky and Richard Zeckhauser

24339: Can Innovators be Created? Experimental Evidence from an Innovation Contest

Joshua Graff Zivin and Elizabeth Lyons

24338: Team Formation and Performance: Evidence from Healthcare Referral Networks

Leila Agha, Keith Ericson, Kimberley H. Geissler and James Rebitzer

24337: No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs

Ioana Marinescu

24336: Positive and Normative Implications of Liability Dollarization for Sudden Stops Models of Macroprudential Policy

Enrique Mendoza and Eugenio Rojas

24335: Optimal Taxes on Capital in the OLG Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Income Risk

Dirk Krueger and Alexander Ludwig

24334: The Impact of Big Data on Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation

Patrick Bajari, Victor Chernozhukov, Ali Hortacsu and Junichi Suzuki

24333: Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: a Review of the Evidence

Katharine Abraham and Melissa S. Kearney

24332: The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK

Michael Geruso and Heather Royer

24331: The Importance of Psychology in Economic Activity: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks

Kenneth Ahern

24330: Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature

Shang-Jin Wei

24329: Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis

Emily Breza and Cynthia Kinnan

24328: The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest

Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan and Julien Matheron

24327: Intuitive Donating: Testing One-Line Solicitations for $1 Donations in a Large Online Experiment

Samantha Horn and Dean Karlan

24326: Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-insurance, and Welfare

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

24325: Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

24324: Linking Individuals Across Historical Sources: a Fully Automated Approach

Ran Abramitzky, Roy Mill and Santiago Perez

24323: Political Alignment, Attitudes Toward Government and Tax Evasion

Julie Cullen, Nick Turner and Ebonya L. Washington

24322: Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel

Atif Mian and Amir Sufi

24321: Modeling Automation

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

24320: Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates

Nelson Camanho, Harald Hau and Helene Rey

24319: The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures

Shang-Jin Wei and Yinxi Xie

24318: Public Tax-Return Disclosure

Jeffrey Hoopes, Leslie Robinson and Joel Slemrod

24317: Evidence of Decreasing Internet Entropy: The Lack of Redundancy in DNS Resolution by Major Websites and Services

Samantha Bates, John Bowers, Shane Greenstein, Jordi Weinstock, Yunhan Xu and Jonathan Zittrain

24316: The Effect of Organized Breast Cancer Screening on Mammography Use: Evidence from France

Thomas Buchmueller and Léontine Goldzahl

24315: Do Human Capital Decisions Respond to the Returns to Education? Evidence from DACA

Elira Kuka, Na'ama Shenhav and Kevin Shih

24314: The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-saving Technology

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Namrata Kala and Anant Nyshadham

24313: The Skills to Pay the Bills: Returns to On-the-job Soft Skills Training

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Namrata Kala and Anant Nyshadham

24312: The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund

Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu

24311: How Persistent Low Expected Returns Alter Optimal Life Cycle Saving, Investment, and Retirement Behavior

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

24310: Designing Dynamic Subsidies to Spur Adoption of New Technologies

Ashley Langer and Derek Lemoine

24309: Resources, Conflict, and Economic Development in Africa

Achyuta Adhvaryu, James Fenske, Gaurav Khanna and Anant Nyshadham

24308: Death by Pokémon GO: The Economic and Human Cost of Using Apps While Driving

Mara Faccio and John J. McConnell

24307: Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?

Efraim Benmelech, Nittai Bergman and Hyunseob Kim

24306: Sequential Bargaining in the Field: Evidence from Millions of Online Bargaining Interactions

Matthew Backus, Thomas Blake, Bradley Larsen and Steven Tadelis

24305: Heard it Through the Grapevine: Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment

William Boning, John Guyton, Ronald H. Hodge, II, Joel Slemrod and Ugo Troiano

24304: Who Pays in Pay for Performance? Evidence from Hospital Pricing

Michael Darden, Ian McCarthy and Eric Barrette

24303: Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico

Susan Parker and Tom Vogl

24302: Do Employee Spinoffs Learn Markets From Their Parents? Evidence From International Trade

Marc-Andreas Muendler and James Rauch

24301: The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence

Matt Taddy

24300: Making Big Changes: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel

Susan Carter and Abigail Wozniak

24299: Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

Charles Mason

24298: Collateral Damage

Gary Gorton and Toomas Laarits

24297: Do Proxies for Informed Trading Measure Informed Trading? Evidence from Illegal Insider Trades

Kenneth Ahern

24296: Intergenerational Spillovers in Disability Insurance

Gordon Dahl and Anne Gielen

24295: Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills

Maximilian Auffhammer and Edward Rubin

24294: Earnings Test, Non-actuarial Adjustments and Flexible Retirement

Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl and Duarte Semedo Leite

24293: Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

David Hirshleifer, Yaron Levi, Ben Lourie and Siew Hong Teoh

24292: Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

Alberto Cavallo, Walter Diewert, Robert Feenstra, Robert Inklaar and Marcel Timmer

24291: Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences

Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke and Armin Falk

24290: Do Discrete Choice Approaches to Valuing Urban Amenities Yield Different Results Than Hedonic Models?

Paramita Sinha, Martha L. Caulkins and Maureen Cropper

24289: The Comparative Advantage of Medicare Advantage

Joseph Newhouse, Mary Beth Landrum, Mary Price, J. Michael McWilliams, John Hsu and Thomas McGuire

24288: Notice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking

Gaétan de Rassenfosse

24287: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States

Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob Robbins and Ella Getz Wold

24286: International Capital Flow Pressures

Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup

24285: Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration

David Jaeger, Joakim Ruist and Jan Stuhler

24284: Human Judgment and AI Pricing

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb

24283: Israel’s Immigration Story: Winners and Losers

Assaf Razin

24282: How Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Can Impact Market Design

Paul Milgrom and Steven Tadelis

24281: Social Transmission Bias and Investor Behavior

Bing Han, David Hirshleifer and Johan Walden

24280: Inequality and Aggregate Demand

Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie

24279: The Right Type of Legislator: A Theory of Taxation and Representation

Andrea Mattozzi and Erik Snowberg

24278: Randomizing Religion: The Impact of Protestant Evangelism on Economic Outcomes

Gharad T. Bryan, James Choi and Dean Karlan

24277: Does E-Cigarette Advertising Encourage Adult Smokers to Quit?

Dhaval Dave, Daniel Dench, Michael Grossman, Donald Kenkel and Henry Saffer

24276: The Effects of Computers and Acquired Skills on Earnings, Employment and College Enrollment: Evidence from a Field Experiment and California UI Earnings Records

Robert Fairlie and Peter Riley Bahr

24275: Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products

Diego Aparicio and Alberto Cavallo

24274: The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market

Guido Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu

24273: Quantitative Analysis of Multi-Party Tariff Negotiations

Kyle Bagwell, Robert Staiger and Ali Yurukoglu

24272: Debt Traps? Market Vendors and Moneylender Debt in India and the Philippines

Dean Karlan, Sendhil Mullainathan and Benjamin N. Roth

24271: Unpacking a Multi-Faceted Program to Build Sustainable Income for the Very Poor

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, Hannah Trachtman and Christopher Udry

24270: Why has Idiosyncratic Risk been Historically Low in Recent Years?

Söhnke Bartram, Gregory W. Brown and René Stulz

24269: Trade Creditors’ Information Advantage

Victoria Ivashina and Benjamin Iverson

24268: Moral Values and Voting

Benjamin Enke

24267: Targeting with In-kind Transfers: Evidence from Medicaid Home Care

Ethan Lieber and Lee Lockwood

24266: New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S

Grace Gu and Eswar Prasad

24265: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

Craig Doidge, Kathleen M. Kahle, G. Karolyi and René Stulz

24264: Aspiration Adaptation in Resource-Constrained Environments

Sebastian Galiani, Paul Gertler and Raimundo Undurraga

24263: Household Time Use Among Older Couples: Evidence and Implications for Labor Supply Parameters

Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius