Economic analysis

In our economic analysis, we look at developments in the short term in economic growth, employment and inflation. We assess what causes the shocks affecting the euro area economy and, together with the national central banks of the euro area, we produce projections of the key macroeconomic variables over a medium-term horizon. That gives an indication of how we expect the economy to develop over the next few years. We also evaluate the risk that future economic growth and inflation might not turn out as we expect.

We regularly review, among other things:

• developments in overall output and its components;
• supply and demand conditions;
• labour market conditions;
• a broad range of price and cost indicators;
• consumer and business surveys;
• fiscal policy; and
• trade flows into and out of the euro area.

Macroeconomic projections

The macroeconomic projections are produced by ECB and euro area national central bank staff. They forecast many real and nominal variables over the next three years.