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Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    (Harvard U)

Abstract
Optimum currency area theory says that trade patterns and cyclical correlations are important criteria for whether a country should join a monetary area such as EMU. But these criteria are endogenous. Recent econometric estimates suggest that currency unions have far greater effects on trade patterns than previously believed. Since currency unions are good for trade, and trade is good for growth, that is one major argument in favor of adopting the euro. There are the usual countervailing arguments for retaining monetary independence, particularly the famous asymmetric shocks. But the pattern of shocks is also endogenous. For the countries of Central and Eastern Europe joining the EU in 2004, one risk-averse argument for joining later, but not necessarily yet, is that trade with euroland can be expected to continue increasing. Econometric estimates suggest that the growing trade links will in turn lead to growing cyclical correlation, that is, to cyclical convergence. The implication is that the new EU members may better qualify for the optimum currency area criteria in the future, even in just five years, than they do as of today. Another kind of convergence, income convergence, is also relevant, but will take too long to wait for.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp04-039
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    2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles Implications for EMU enlargement1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, July.
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    5. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
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    9. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    10. Viviana Fernández & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "Do Regional Integration Agreements Increase Business-Cycle Convergence? Evidence from Apec and Nafta," Documentos de Trabajo 202, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
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    13. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    14. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 13, pages 5-26, March.
    15. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    16. Timo Baas, 2014. "Estonia and the European Monetary Union – Are there Benefi ts from a “Late” Accession?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0489, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009. "How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
    18. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    19. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    20. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    21. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro's trade effects," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank.
    22. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    23. Cristian Păun & Ștefan Ungureanu, 2015. "The Nominal And Real Convergence:A Real Problem For A Single Currency Area," Review of Social and Economic Issues, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(2), pages 29-49, march.
    24. Cristian Păun, 2016. "The Adoption Of Euro In Case Of Romania: The Main (Counter) Arguments," Review of Social and Economic Issues, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(3), pages 76-94, march.

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