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How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3

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  • Qin, Duo
  • Tan, Tao
Abstract
A multilateral currency union removes intraregional exchange rates but not the union rate. The pre-union intraregional exchange rate variability is thus latent; a two-step procedure is developed to measure this. The measured variables are used to model inflation and intraregional trade growth of individual union members. Counterfactual simulations of the union impact are carried out using the resulting models. Application to ASEAN+3 shows that the intraregional variability mainly consists of short-run exchange rate shocks, that the variability significantly affects inflation and intraregional trade of major ASEAN+3 members, and that a union would reduce inflation and promote trade regionwide.

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  • Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009. "How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:10:p:1793-1803
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    3. Jamshaid ur Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Shabbir Ahmad & Aftab Anwar, 2022. "In Search of Common Currency Anchor for ASEAN+3+3 Countries," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 237-264, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency union Latent variables Dynamic factor model Simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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