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Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective

Author

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  • Igor Veličkovski
  • Aleksandar Stojkov
Abstract
In the current context of continuous reassessment of the sustainability of the single currency and gradual enlargement of the euro area during the last decade, the objective of this research is to obtain new insights into the factors that determine the synchronisation of shocks in the Central and South-Eastern European countries vis-à-vis the euro area. The research contributes to the previous work by making a novel use of error correction model in a dynamic panel context which is extended by adding several important omitted variables related to the trade structure and policy coordination. We find that an increase in trade intensity, intra-industry trade and financial integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks. On the other hand, divergent fiscal policies are estimated in some model specifications to increase the shock divergence process, although the estimated impact is rather small to counteract the positive effects associated with trade and financial integration. The identified relationships in this research are affected by the significant trade and growth slowdown in the crisis period; while the global economic turmoil has boosted a demand shock convergence, its impact on the supply shocks is in the opposite (diverging) direction. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:287-321
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9247-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shock synchronisation; Trade; Structural VAR; Dynamic panel models; E32; F10; C32; C33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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