[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/iiessp/0611.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency

Author

Listed:
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

    (Economics Department, University of California)

  • Rose, Andrew K.

    (Economics Department, University of California)

Abstract
Everyone studying EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden’s income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlations are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.) The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden’s interest to join EMU. We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strengthen in the future, then Sweden’s income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naïve examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Seminar Papers 611, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://su.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:343121/FULLTEXT01
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-172, January.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer and Teresa Cyrus., 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-050, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1996. "Recent Exchange-Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 153-158, May.
    5. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    6. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553, September.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    8. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "A Proposal to Introduce the ECU First in the East," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233415, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    10. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1995. "European Integration and the Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: The Economics and the Politics," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233413, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1994. "Trading Blocs: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233217, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1995. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233391, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    16. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?," NBER Working Papers 3950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," CEPR Discussion Papers 929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Supernatural," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 52-56, May.
    19. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "The Stability of the Gold Standard and the Evolution of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-040, University of California at Berkeley.
    20. Bardhan, Pranab, 1996. "Efficiency, Equity and Poverty Alleviation: Policy Issues in Less Developed Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3jq4h9sc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    21. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    22. Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "What Do Currency Crises Tell Us About the Future of the International Monetary System?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-057, University of California at Berkeley.
    23. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "The Bretton Woods System: Paradise Lost?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-043, University of California at Berkeley.
    24. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-321, August.
    27. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli, 1991. "The European Central Bank: Reshaping Monetary Politics in Europe," NBER Working Papers 3860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Sterling in Decline Again: The 1931 and 1992 Crises Compared," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233404, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    29. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets: Introduction," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-033, University of California at Berkeley.
    30. Bardhan, Pranab & Priale, Rodrigo, 1996. "Endogenous Growth Theory in a Vintage Capital Model," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1xf503b5, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    31. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "Fixed exchange rates as a means to price stability: What have we learned?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 447-468, April.
    32. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    33. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
    35. Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
    36. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    37. Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc, 1994. "The Geography of the Gold Standard," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233393, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    38. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Exchange rate variability and asset trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 485-509, May.
    39. Jeff Dayton-Johnson & Pranab Bardhan, 2002. "Inequality And Conservation On The Local Commons: A Theoretical Exercise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 577-602, July.
    40. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit: reply and clarification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 141-147, February.
    42. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    43. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    44. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe From the United States," NBER Working Papers 3855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Bardhan, Pranab, 1996. "Efficiency, Equity and Poverty Alleviation: Policy Issues in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1344-1356, September.
    46. Paul De Grauwe & Wim Vanhaverbeke, 2014. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 8, pages 231-252, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    47. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Monetary and exchange rate arrangements for NAFTA," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 125-165, February.
    48. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    50. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    51. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    52. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    55. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    56. C. A. E. Goodhart, 1995. "The Political Economy of Monetary Union (1995)," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Central Bank and the Financial System, chapter 8, pages 156-202, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1996. "Recent Exchange-Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 153-158, May.
    2. Bardhan, Pranab, 1996. "The Nature of Institutional Impediments to Economic Development," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233429, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "What Do Currency Crises Tell Us About the Future of the International Monetary System?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233418, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit: reply and clarification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 141-147, February.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-172, January.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "A Proposal to Introduce the ECU First in the East," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-055, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Sterling in Decline Again: The 1931 and 1992 Crises Compared," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233404, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "The Bretton Woods System: Paradise Lost?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233394, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    13. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-041, University of California at Berkeley.
    15. Schor, Armand-Denis, 2000. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales : l’optimum, le praticable, le crédible et le réel," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 545-576, décembre.
    16. Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc, 1994. "The Geography of the Gold Standard," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233393, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    19. Pranab Bardhan, 1998. "The Contributions of Endogenous Growth Theory to the Analysis of Development Problems: An Assessment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Fabrizio Coricelli & Massimo di Matteo & Frank Hahn (ed.), New Theories in Growth and Development, chapter 5, pages 97-110, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An Empirical Test of Trade Gravity Model Criteria for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," MPRA Paper 7083, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Optimum Currency Area; trade patterns; income correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hanna Christiansson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiesuse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.