[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v56y2023ics1544612323004762.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model

Author

Listed:
  • Sánchez García, Javier
  • Cruz Rambaud, Salvador
Abstract
This paper builds a network econometric model capable of analysing the impact of inflation on systemic risk. Its main contribution is the identification of a robust inverse relationship which reverses when controlling monetary policy. This reveals that the former effect is due to monetary policy reactions to inflation. It is further analysed whether this effect comes from overindebtness as in a Minsky moment. There is no evidence supporting it, which suggests that mechanisms other than excess credit underlie such a relationship. The results presented in this paper are of particular importance for understanding monetary policy reactions to current inflationary cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez García, Javier & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2023. "Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:56:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323004762
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323004762
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Doukas, John A., 2022. "COVID-19 and Tail-event Driven Network Risk in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    8. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    10. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 93-108.
    13. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Pérez, Omar Pérez & Embriz, Fernando Avila & Dey, Fabrizio López Gallo, 2010. "Systemic risk, financial contagion and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2358-2374, November.
    14. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    15. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    16. García, Javier Sánchez & Rambaud, Salvador Cruz, 2023. "Macrofinancial determinants of volatility transmission in a network of European sovereign debt markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Silva, Thiago Christiano & da Silva, Michel Alexandre & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Systemic risk in financial systems: A feedback approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 97-120.
    18. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April.
    19. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Festus Victor Bekun, 2020. "Spillover dynamics across price inflation and selected agricultural commodity prices," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    21. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2012. "Does inflation have an impact on stock returns and volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 427-435, March.
    22. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    23. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    24. Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    25. Johannes Pol, 2019. "Introduction to Network Modeling Using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM): Theory and an Application Using R-Project," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 845-875, October.
    26. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
    27. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Alexandre, Michel da Silva & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2018. "Bank lending and systemic risk: A financial-real sector network approach with feedback," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 98-118.
    28. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    2. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    5. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Silva, Igor Bettanin Dalla Riva e & Silva, Thiago Christiano, 2022. "Analysis of connectivity between the world’s banking markets: The COVID-19 global pandemic shock," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 324-336.
    6. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 109-140.
    7. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2024. "Does systemic risk in the fund markets predict future economic downturns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    9. Donal Smith, 2016. "The International Impact of Financial Shocks: A Global VAR and Connectedness Measures Approach," Discussion Papers 16/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    11. Chen, Yan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "Quantile connectedness and the determinants between FinTech and traditional financial institutions: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Ramirez, Juan-Rubio & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Twin defaults and bank capital requirements," Working Paper Series 2414, European Central Bank.
    13. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Brenda L'opez Cabrera, 2020. "Regularization Approach for Network Modeling of German Power Derivative Market," Papers 2009.09739, arXiv.org.
    15. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    16. Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Bank Volatility Connectedness in South East Asia," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1807, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    18. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Givers never lack: Nigerian oil & gas asymmetric network analyses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "Fear connectedness among asset classes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4234-4249, August.
    20. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Javier Suarez, 2020. "Twin Default Crises," Working Papers 2020-01, FEDEA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Systemic risk; Macro-financial links; Connectedness; Financial networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:56:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323004762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.