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Does inflation has an Impact on Stock Returns and Volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana

Author

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  • Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu
Abstract
This study seeks to apply the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the impact of inflation on stock market returns and volatility using monthly time series data from two West African countries, that is, Nigeria and Ghana. In addition, the impact of asymmetric shocks was investigated using the quadratic GARCH model developed by Sentana (1995), in both countries. Results for Nigeria show weak support for the hypothesis which states that bad news exert more adverse effect on stock market volatility than good news of the same magnitude; while a strong opposite case holds for Ghana. Furthermore, inflation rate and its three month average were found to have significant effect on stock market volatility in the two countries. Measures employed towards restraining inflation in the two countries, therefore, would certainly reduce stock market volatility, improve stock market returns and boost investor confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2010. "Does inflation has an Impact on Stock Returns and Volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," MPRA Paper 30091, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Perekunah B. Eregha & Festus O. Egwaikhide & Emeka Osuji, 2020. "Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility in Selected WAMZ Countries: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(1-2), pages 58-80, January-J.
    4. Amar Singh & Arvind Mohan, 2020. "An Empirical Model of Indian Foreign Investment and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence From ARDL Bounds Testing Analysis," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(2), pages 154-162, April.
    5. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    6. Md Sharif Hossain, & Md.Thasinul Abedin, 2017. "Socio-economy and stock market volatility," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, August.
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    10. Sánchez García, Javier & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2023. "Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Volatility; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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