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Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Public Debt and Policy Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Saroj Bhattarai
  • Jae Won Lee
  • Woong Yong Park
Abstract
We investigate the roles of a time-varying inflation target and monetary and fiscal policy stances on the dynamics of inflation in a DSGE model. Under an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime, inflation closely follows the path of the inflation target and a stronger reaction of monetary policy to inflation decreases the response of inflation to non-policy shocks. In sharp contrast, under an active fiscal and passive monetary policy regime, inflation moves in an opposite direction from the inflation target and a stronger reaction of monetary policy to inflation increases the response of inflation to non-policy shocks. Moreover, a higher level of government debt leads to a greater response of inflation while a weaker response of fiscal policy to debt decreases the response of inflation to non-policy shocks. These results are due to variation in the value of public debt that leads to wealth effects on households. Finally, under a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime, both monetary and fiscal policy parameters matter for inflation dynamics, but because of equilibrium indeterminacy, theory provides no clear answer on the overall behavior of inflation. We characterize these results analytically in a simple model and numerically in a quantitative model.

Suggested Citation

  • Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Public Debt and Policy Regimes," CAMA Working Papers 2013-75, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-75
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sánchez García, Javier & Cruz Rambaud, Salvador, 2023. "Inflation and systemic risk: A network econometric model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    4. Cho, Seonghoon, 2021. "Determinacy and classification of Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Van Bon Nguyen, 2022. "Does governance matter for the public debt–inflation relationship in developed countries? Panel quantile regression approach," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 1153-1173, December.
    6. de Haan, J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester, 2016. "The Politics of Central Bank Independence," Discussion Paper 2016-047, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Maitra, Biswajit & Hossain, Tafajul, 2024. "Exploring price level trajectory in India: Does it validate the fiscal theory of price level?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2018. "High trend inflation and passive monetary detours," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 138-142.
    10. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 137-152.
    11. Gliksberg, Baruch, "undated". "Dynamic Scoring and Monetary Policy," Working Papers WP2014/1, University of Haifa, Department of Economics.
    12. Dumitrescu, Bogdan Andrei & Kagitci, Meral & Cepoi, Cosmin-Octavian, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of public debt on inflation. Does the size of the shadow economy matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    13. Francesco Busato & Marina Albanese & Monica Varlese, 2022. "The impact of monetary policy shock on public debt: a DSGE approach," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(3), pages 17-28, July-Sept.
    14. Boris Chafwehé & Charles de Beauffort & Rigas Oikonomou, 2021. "Debt Management in a World of Fiscal Dominance," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-11, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Price level targeting under fiscal dominance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Charles de Beauffort & Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou, 2024. "Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios," Working Paper Research 450, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Monetary-fiscal interactions under price level targeting," Papers 2010.14979, arXiv.org.
    19. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2016. "Equilibria under monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a portfolio choice model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 209-228.
    20. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Saurabh Sharma & Ipsita Padhi & Sarat Dhal, 2022. "Monetary-fiscal coordination: when, why and how?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 661-686, September.
    22. Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2014. "Learning the Fiscal Monetary Interaction under Trend Inflation," DEM Working Papers Series 068, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    23. Beck-Friis, Peder & Willems, Tim, 2017. "Dissecting fiscal multipliers under the fiscal theory of the price level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-83.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying inflation target; Inflation response; Public debt; Monetary and fiscal policy regimes; Monetary and fiscal policy stances; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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