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Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks

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  • James Feyrer
  • Jay C. Shambaugh
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Using the exogenous shocks to US tax policy identified by Romer & Romer, we trace the impact of an exogenous shock to savings through the income accounting identities of the US and the rest of the world. We find that exogenous tax increases are only partially offset by changes in private savings (Ricardian equivalence is not complete). We also find that only a small amount of the resulting change in US saving is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contrary to Feldstein & Horioka). Almost half of the fiscal shock is transmitted abroad as an increase in the US current account. Positive shocks to US savings generate current account deficits and increases in investment in other countries in the world. We cannot reject that the shock is uniformly transmitted across countries with different currency regimes and different levels of development. The results suggest highly integrated world capital markets with rapid adjustment. In short we find that the US acts like a large open economy and the world acts like a closed economy.

Suggested Citation

  • James Feyrer & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2009. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15113
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2010/121, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Kodjovi Mawulikplimi Eklou & Marcelin Joanis & Patrick Richard, 2015. "A "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor" Effect in Public Debt? Evidence from cross-border spillover of fiscal consolidations," Cahiers de recherche 15-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    4. Attiya Y. Javid & Muhammad Javid & Umiama Arif, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Current Account Dynamics in the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 577-592.
    5. Hayo, Bernd & Mierzwa, Sascha, 2023. "The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    7. Yusuf D. Bulus & Nnaemeka E. Ohaegbu & Olufunmilayo S. Tajudeen & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo & Danjuma S. Yusuf, 2023. "Fiscal Deficit Expansion and External Sector Imbalance in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 1687-1703, May.
    8. Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Spillovers from Tax Shocks to the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202133, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. S M Ali Abbas & Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe & Antonio Fatás & Paolo Mauro & Ricardo C Velloso, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 603-629, November.
    10. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
    13. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp376, IIIS.
    14. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
    15. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
    16. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2018. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 428-439, April.
    17. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "External imbalances and macroeconomic policy," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 53-70, April.
    18. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo.
    19. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2017. "Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 292-319, May.
    20. Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
    21. Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    22. James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote, 2011. "Did the Stimulus Stimulate? Real Time Estimates of the Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," NBER Working Papers 16759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Madeline Hanson & Daniela Hauser & Romanos Priftis, 2021. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes," Staff Working Papers 21-41, Bank of Canada.
    24. Philip Lane, 2010. "External Imbalances and Fiscal Policy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp314, IIIS.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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