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Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers

Author

Listed:
  • Hebous, Shafik
  • Zimmermann, Tom
Abstract
We re-examin the notion of identifying macroeconomic effects using the narrative approach taking as an application the estimation of tax multipliers. We point out to a test for the checking the adequacy of regressing the narrative measure directly on the outcome variable. This test straightforwardly reconciles the reduced form narrative approach with the instrumental variable approach. We consider estimating tax multipliers using six different recently published narrative tax series. The results of our test suggest that none of the considered measures can be regressed directly on output growth. This finding entails questioning the exogeneity of these variables or, in case that exogeneity is maintained, rethinking the appropriate specification. We argue in favor of using an IV procedure and correcting the confidence bands for the weak instrument problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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