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Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies

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  • Rishabh Aggarwal
  • Adrien Auclert
  • Matthew Rognlie
  • Ludwig Straub
Abstract
We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world interest rate and increase private wealth everywhere. In the short run, a country with a larger-than-average fiscal deficit experiences both a large increase in private savings (“excess savings”) and a small but persistent current account deficit (a slow-motion “twin deficit”). These patterns are consistent with the evolution of the world’s balance of payments since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Rishabh Aggarwal & Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub, 2023. "Excess Savings and Twin Deficits: The Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Open Economies," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 325-412.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/723586
    DOI: 10.1086/723586
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    3. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Nils M. Gornemann & Julio L. Ortiz, 2024. "Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1397, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two-country HANK model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 374162075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    6. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two country HANK model: the case of Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_02, Durham University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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