[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202469.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banking euro area stress test model

Author

Listed:
  • Budnik, Katarzyna
  • Balatti, Mirco
  • Dimitrov, Ivan
  • Groß, Johannes
  • Kleemann, Michael
  • Reichenbachas, Tomas
  • Sanna, Francesco
  • Sarychev, Andrei
  • Siņenko, Nadežda
  • Volk, Matjaz
Abstract
The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large scale semi-structural model developed to assess the resilience of the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of a high number of euro area banks with that of the euro area economies. It reflects banks’ heterogeneity by replicating the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. In the model, banks adjust their assets, interest rates, and profit distribution in line with the economic conditions they face. Bank responses feed back to the macroeconomic environment affecting credit supply conditions. When applied to a stress test of the euro area banking system, the model reveals higher system-wide capital depletion than the analogous constant balance sheet exercise. JEL Classification: E37, E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202469
    Note: 1355359
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2469~a139d2f5cd.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Imperfections: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris, Charles W. & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "How does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 142-165.
    5. Niepmann, Friederike & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2024. "Modeling your stress away," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. De Jonghe, Olivier & Dewachter, Hans & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "Bank capital (requirements) and credit supply: Evidence from pillar 2 decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    8. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    9. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    10. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Allen Monks, 2015. "Did the EBA Capital Exercise Cause a Credit Crunch in the Euro Area?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 75-117, June.
    11. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    12. Jose Fique, 2017. "The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0," Technical Reports 111, Bank of Canada.
    13. Kok, Christoffer & Mirza, Harun & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2019. "Macro stress testing euro area banks’ fees and commissions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-119.
    14. Niepmann, Friederike & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2024. "Modeling your stress away," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
    16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial Regulation in a System Context," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 229-274.
    17. T. Bennani & C. Couaillier & A. Devulder & S. Gabrieli & J. Idier & P. Lopez & T. Piquard & V. Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    18. Mr. Ivo Krznar & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2017. "Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing: Incorporating Macro-Feedback Effects," IMF Working Papers 2017/149, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    20. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
    21. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    22. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    23. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    24. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    25. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    26. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    27. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    28. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lampe, Max & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2022. "The economic impact of the NPLcoverage expectations in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 297, European Central Bank.
    2. Borsuk, Marcin & Budnik, Katarzyna & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Buffer use and lending impact," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11.
    3. Josef Sveda & Jiri Panos & Vojtech Siuda, 2024. "Modelling Risk-Weighted Assets: Looking Beyond Stress Tests," IHEID Working Papers 04-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Giglio, Carla & Groß, Johannes & Lampe, Max & Sarychev, Andrei & Tarbé, Matthieu & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2021. "The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    5. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Jančoková, Martina & Lampe, Max & Sorvillo, Bianca & Stular, Anze & Volk, Matjaz, 2021. "Policies in support of lending following the coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic," Occasional Paper Series 257, European Central Bank.
    7. Boucherie, Louis & Budnik, Katarzyna & Panos, Jiri, 2022. "Looking at the evolution of macroprudential policy stance: A growth-at-risk experiment with a semi-structural model," Occasional Paper Series 301, European Central Bank.
    8. Davidson, Sharada Nia & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2024. "The nonlinear effects of banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2912, European Central Bank.
    9. Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2021. "Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2021, pages 13-22, Czech National Bank.
    10. Gross, Christian & Jarmuzek, Mariusz & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2021. "Macro-stress testing dividend income. Evidence from euro area banks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2020. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non‐financial corporations in the euro area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 126-150, September.
    3. Sivec, Vasja & Volk, Matjaž, 2021. "Bank response to policy-related changes in capital requirements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 868-877.
    4. Berrospide, Jose M. & Edge, Rochelle M., 2024. "Bank capital buffers and lending, firm financing and spending: What can we learn from five years of stress test results?✰," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Auer, Raphael & Matyunina, Alexandra & Ongena, Steven, 2022. "The countercyclical capital buffer and the composition of bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Reichenbachas Tomas, 2017. "Credit-Related Shocks in VAR models: The Case of Lithuania," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(3), pages 7-19, January.
    7. Rustom M Irani & Rajkamal Iyer & Ralf R Meisenzahl & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation [Securities trading by banks and credit supply: Micro-evidence from the crisis]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2181-2235.
    8. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    9. Xolani Sibande & Alistair Milne, 2024. "The impact of Basel III implementation on bank lending in South Africa," Working Papers 11055, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Conti, Antonio M. & Nobili, Andrea & Signoretti, Federico M., 2023. "Bank capital requirement shocks: A narrative perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Varraso, Paolo, 2024. "Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking in the short- and medium-term: Evidence from the euro area experiments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodríguez d'Acri, Costanza & Spaggiari, Martina, 2022. "Compositional effects of bank capital buffers and interactions with monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Varraso, Paolo & Budrys, Žymantas & Peeters, Jonas, 2019. "Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking: evidence from the euro area experiments," Working Paper Series 2292, European Central Bank.
    14. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    15. Björn Imbierowicz & Axel Löffler & Ursula Vogel, 2021. "The transmission of bank capital requirements and monetary policy to bank lending in Germany," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 144-164, February.
    16. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    17. Björn Imbierowicz & Jonas Kragh & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Time‐Varying Capital Requirements and Disclosure Rules: Effects on Capitalization and Lending Decisions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 573-602, June.
    18. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    19. Altavilla, Carlo & Laeven, Luc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: evidence from European credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Ibrahim Khalil ALLOUCHE & Nancy HIJAZI, 2024. "Financial Stability in the MENA Region: The Impact of Banking Capitalization and Institutional Environment on Credit Availability," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(1), pages 1-1, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector deleveraging; macroprudential policy; macro stress test; real economy-financial sector feedback loop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.