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Modeling Your Stress Away

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Abstract
We investigate systematic changes in banks' projected credit losses between the 2014 and 2016 EBA stress tests, employing methodology from Philippon et al. (2017). We find that projected credit losses were smoothed across the tests through systematic model adjustments. Those banks whose losses would have increased the most from 2014 to 2016 due to changes in the supervisory scenarios-keeping the models constant and controlling for changes in the riskiness of underlying portfolios-saw the largest decrease in losses due to model changes. Model changes were more pronounced for banks that rely more on the Internal Ratings-Based approach, and they explain the cross-section of market responses to the release of the 2016 results. Stock prices and CDS spreads increased more for banks with larger reductions in projected credit losses due to model changes, as investors apparently did not interpret lower loan losses as reflecting mainly a decrease in credit risk but, instead, as a sign of lower capital requirements going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Niepmann & Viktors Stebunovs, 2018. "Modeling Your Stress Away," International Finance Discussion Papers 1232, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1232
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1232
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    1. Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Ongena, Steven & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2023. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Kok, Christoffer & Müller, Carola & Ongena, Steven & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2023. "The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Haselmann, Rainer & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2018. "How demanding and consistent is the 2018 stress test design in comparison to previous exercises? Banking union scrutiny," SAFE White Paper Series 54, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    3. Joel Shapiro & Jing Zeng, 2024. "Stress Testing and Bank Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 1265-1314.
    4. Berrospide, Jose M. & Edge, Rochelle M., 2024. "Bank capital buffers and lending, firm financing and spending: What can we learn from five years of stress test results?✰," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Henry Penikas & Anastasia Skarednova & Mikhail Surkov, 2021. "How Do Investors Prefer Banks to Transit to Basel Internal Models: Mandatorily or Voluntarily?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps74, Bank of Russia.
    6. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    7. Ramadiah, Amanah & Fricke, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2022. "Backtesting macroprudential stress tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M.-Dolores & Alonso Orts, Carlos, 2023. "Stress testing programs and credit risk opacity of banks: USA vs Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Hernández, Javier & Población García, Francisco Javier & Suárez, Nuria & Tarancón, Javier, 2022. "A study on the EBA stress test results: influence of bank, portfolio, and country-level characteristics," Working Paper Series 2648, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress tests; Financial institutions; Regulation; Credit risk models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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