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The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Budnik, Katarzyna
  • Dimitrov, Ivan
  • Giglio, Carla
  • Groß, Johannes
  • Lampe, Max
  • Sarychev, Andrei
  • Tarbé, Matthieu
  • Vagliano, Gianluca
  • Volk, Matjaz
Abstract
This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence banks’ reactions to economic conditions and, as a result, affect the ability of the banking system to amplify or dampen economic shocks. The assessment covers the entire distribution of conditional economic predictions to measure the cost and benefit of the reforms. Looking at the means of conditional forecasts of output growth provides an indication of the costs of the reform, namely a transitory reduction in euro area gross domestic product (GDP) and in lending to the non-financial private sector. Looking at the lower percentile of output growth forecasts, i.e. growth at risk, captures the long-term benefits of the Basel III finalisation package in terms of improved resilience and the ability of the banking system to supply lending to the real economy under adverse conditions. These permanent growth-at-risk benefits ultimately outweigh the short-term costs of the reform. JEL Classification: E37, E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Giglio, Carla & Groß, Johannes & Lampe, Max & Sarychev, Andrei & Tarbé, Matthieu & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2021. "The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021258
    Note: 1355359
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op258~8280902a63.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William R. Cline, 2017. "The Right Balance for Banks: Theory and Evidence on Optimal Capital Requirements," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 7212, April.
    2. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    3. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
    4. Yan Wang & Yudong Yao, 2001. "Measuring economic downside risk and severity - Growth at Risk," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2674, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Grill, Michael & Popescu, Alexandra & Rancoita, Elena, 2024. "Climate transition risk in the banking sector: what can prudential regulation do?," Working Paper Series 2910, European Central Bank.
    2. Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2021. "The repo market under Basel III," Bank of England working papers 954, Bank of England.
    3. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lampe, Max & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2022. "The economic impact of the NPLcoverage expectations in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 297, European Central Bank.
    4. Budnik, Katarzyna & Groß, Johannes & Vagliano, Gianluca & Dimitrov, Ivan & Lampe, Max & Panos, Jiri & Velasco, Sofia & Boucherie, Louis & Jančoková, Martina, 2023. "BEAST: A model for the assessment of system-wide risks and macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 2855, European Central Bank.
    5. Boucherie, Louis & Budnik, Katarzyna & Panos, Jiri, 2022. "Looking at the evolution of macroprudential policy stance: A growth-at-risk experiment with a semi-structural model," Occasional Paper Series 301, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; Basel III finalisation; impact assessment; real-financial feedback mechanism; regulatory policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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