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Monetary policy spillovers across the Pacific when interest rates are at the zero lower bound

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Abstract
To conduct monetary policy effectively, central banks need to understand the transmission of monetary policy into financial markets. In this paper, we investigate the effects of United States and Japanese monetary policy shocks on their own asset markets, and the spillovers into each other's markets. However, because short-term nominal interest rates have been effectively zero in Japan since January 1998 and the United States from late 2008, monetary policy shocks cannot be quantified by considering observable changes in short-term market interest rates. Therefore, in our analysis we use a shadow short rate - a quantitative measure of overall conventional and unconventional monetary policy that is estimated from the term structure of interest rates. Our results suggest that the operation of monetary policy at the zero lower bound of interest rates alters the transmission of shocks. In particular, we find a limited response of exchange rates during the first episode of unconventional monetary policy in Japan but a significant impact since 2006.

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  • Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers across the Pacific when interest rates are at the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2016/08
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    Cited by:

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    2. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    4. Bahloul, Walid & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic news surprises and uncertainty for major economies on returns and volatility of oil futures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 247-253.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 241-261, July.
    7. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    8. Caraiani, Petre & Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2020. "Credit policy and asset price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Cepni, Oguzhan & Dul, Wiehan & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    11. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policy and Large Scale Fiscal Policy Effective?: The Case of Japan," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 42-48, August.
    12. Il Houng Lee & Kyunghun Kim, 2018. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Financial Market Openness, and Economic Growth," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 145-162, Winter/Sp.
    13. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "International monetary policy spillovers: Evidence from a time-varying parameter vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "International Monetary Policy Spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR," Working Papers 201806, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2024. "International monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets: dynamic and spillover effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(16), pages 1855-1875, November.

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