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The Skill-Specific Impact of Past and Projected Occupational Decline

Author

Listed:
  • Hensvik, Lena

    (Uppsala University)

  • Nordström Skans, Oskar

    (Uppsala University)

Abstract
Using population-wide Swedish register data on cognitive abilities and productive personality traits, we show that employment growth has been monotonically skill-biased in terms of these general-purpose intellectual skills, despite a simultaneous (polarizing) decline in middle-wage jobs. Employees in declining mid-wage occupations have comparably little of these general intellectual skills. Conversely, growing low-wage occupations are more (intellectually) skill-intensive than other low-wage jobs. Employment has primarily increased in occupations where workers are endowed with verbal and technical abilities, and social maturity. Existing occupational projections imply that the relationship between employment growth and skills in the projected future will resemble the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Hensvik, Lena & Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2020. "The Skill-Specific Impact of Past and Projected Occupational Decline," IZA Discussion Papers 12931, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gardberg, Malin & Heyman, Fredrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars, 2020. "Digitization-based automation and occupational dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Nordström Skans, Oskar & Choné, Philippe & Kramarz, Francis, 2022. "When workers’ skills become unbundled: Some empirical consequences for sorting and wages," Working Paper Series 2022:6, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    3. Neumann, Uwe, 2023. "Regional adaptability to digital change: May the Swabian force be with you," Ruhr Economic Papers 1004, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Graetz, Georg, 2020. "Technological change and the Swedish labor market," Working Paper Series 2020:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    5. Ilyés, Virág & Sebők, Anna, 2023. "University peers and career prospects: The impact of university ties on early labor market outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    future of work; polarization; skills;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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