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Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality

Author

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  • Michael J. Böhm
  • Hans-Martin von Gaudecker
  • Felix Schran
  • Hans-Martin von Gaudecker
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between changes in occupational employment, occupational wages, and rising overall wage inequality. Using long-running administrative panel data with detailed occupation codes, we first document that in all occupations, entrants and leavers earn lower wages than stayers. This empirical fact suggests substantial skill selection effects that are negative for growing occupations and positive for shrinking ones. We develop and estimate a model for prices paid per unit of skill in occupations, which incorporates occupation-specific skill accumulation over the career and endogenous switching across many occupations. Our results shed light on two important puzzles in prior literature. First, consistent with leading explanations for occupational employment changes, price and employment growth are positively related. Strong counteracting skill changes along the lines of our new empirical fact explain why occupational wages are unrelated to employment growth. Second, skill prices establish a long-suspected quantitative connection between occupational changes and the surge in wage inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Böhm & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Felix Schran & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, 2019. "Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series 7877, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7877
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    5. Albinowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2024. "The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Schran, Felix, 2019. "Changing Returns to Occupational Skill and Women's Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 12661, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Cavaglia, Chiara & Etheridge, Ben, 2020. "Job polarization and the declining quality of knowledge workers: Evidence from the UK and Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Faia, Ester & Kudlyak, Marianna & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2021. "Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 14794, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez, Manuel & Wang, Fan, 2022. "The Distribution of the Gender Wage Gap: An Equilibrium Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 17253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Hensvik, Lena & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2023. "The skill-specific impact of past and projected occupational decline," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Bachmann, Ronald & Demir, Gökay & Green, Colin P. & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2022. "The Role of Within-Occupation Task Changes in Wage Development," IZA Discussion Papers 15647, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Eduard Storm, 2022. "Task specialization and the Native‐Foreign Wage Gap," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(2), pages 167-195, June.
    13. Graetz, Georg, 2020. "Technological change and the Swedish labor market," Working Paper Series 2020:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    14. Michael J Böhm & Terry Gregory & Pamela Qendrai & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Demographic change and regional labour markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 113-131.
    15. Schran, Felix, 2019. "Locational Choice and Spatial Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 12660, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Bachmann, Ronald & Gonschor, Myrielle, 2022. "Technological progress, occupational structure and gender gaps in the German labour market," Ruhr Economic Papers 955, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Hunt, Jennifer & Nunn, Ryan, 2022. "Has U.S. employment really polarized? A critical reappraisal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Bhalotra, Sonia R & Fernández, Manuel & Wang, Fan, 2022. "The distribution of the gender wage gap : An equilibrium model," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 614, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    19. Ronald Bachmann & Gökay Demir & Hanna Frings, 2022. "Labor Market Polarization, Job Tasks, and Monopsony Power," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 11-49.
    20. Cavaglia, Chiara & Etheridge, Ben, 2020. "Job polarization and the declining quality of knowledge workers: evidence from the UK and Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105819, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    skill prices; selection effects; multidimensional skill accumulation; occupational employment and wages; administrative panel data; wage inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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