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Capital flight from the countries in transition: some theory and empirical evidence

Author

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  • Nathan Sheets
Abstract
The first portion of this paper develops a simple framework that decomposes home demand for a domestic risky asset into a portfolio diversification incentive, a relative risk incentive, and a relative return incentive. It shows that capital flight may be caused by factors that increase the relative riskiness of the home asset or by structural distortions (such as financial sector inefficiency), which reduce the relative return of the domestic asset. The second portion of the paper provides empirical estimates of capital flight from Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Russia for the 1988-93 period. The analysis concludes that the implementation of \"shock therapy\" reform programs has been accompanied by substantial capital flight. This has apparently occurred because such reform programs have initially generated increased economic and political uncertainty: prices have jumped toward world levels, property rights have been redistributed, and new institutions have been established. As these reform programs have progressed, however, the quantity of capital flight has declined. Hungary's experience is significantly different from that of the other three countries. Hungary pursued gradual reform and never experienced significant capital flight.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Sheets, 1995. "Capital flight from the countries in transition: some theory and empirical evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 514, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Flight capital as a portfolio choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2066, The World Bank.
    3. Marcella Mulino, 2002. "On the determinants of capital flight from Russia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 148-169, June.
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "A Capital Flight-Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Papers 034, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    5. Edwin M. Truman, 2014. "The Federal Reserve engages the world (1970-2000): an insider's narrative of the transition to managed floating and financial turbulence," Globalization Institute Working Papers 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Andrew Powell & Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra, 2002. "Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences," Business School Working Papers veinticinco, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    8. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Vukšić, Goran, 2013. "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-46.
    9. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2011. "The costs of moving money across borders and the volume of capital flight: the case of Russia and other CIS countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 717-744, November.

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