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China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Steinkamp, Sven
  • Westermann, Frank
Abstract
We study China's illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern. Specifically, we observe that China's capital flight, especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing, exhibits a weakened response in the post-2007 period to the covered interest disparity, which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight. Further analyses indicate that the post-2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability, capital control policy and trade frictions. Our study confirms that China's capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event. Further, both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight. These results highlight the challenges of managing China's capital flight, which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2016. "China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:88-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.009
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    8. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Hinrich Voss & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Ping Zheng, 2018. "A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 4-23, January.
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    10. Hasnul, Al Gifari & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Role of instability in affecting capital flight magnitude: An ARDL bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 72086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Bank residual method; Trade misinvoicing; Quantitative easing; Capital controls; Covered interest disparity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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