[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iee/wpaper/wp0103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Capital Flight: Pre- and Post-Crisis Experiences

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Sven Steinkamp

    (Universitaet Osnabrueck)

  • Frank Westermann

    (Universitaet Osnabrueck)

Abstract
We study China’s illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern. Specifically, we observe that China’s capital flight, especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing, exhibits a weakened response in the post-2007 period to the covered interest disparity, which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight. Further analyses indicate that the post-2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability, capital control policy and trade frictions. Our study confirms that China’s capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event. Further, both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight. These results highlight the challenges of managing China’s capital flight, which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2015. "China's Capital Flight: Pre- and Post-Crisis Experiences," IEER Working Papers 103, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 16 Dec 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://web.fb9.uni-osnabrueck.de/repec/iee/wpaper/14502586_WP_103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. K. Boyce & L. Ndikumana, 2001. "Is Africa a Net Creditor? New Estimates of Capital Flight from Severely Indebted Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1970-96," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 27-56.
    2. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 824-843, September.
    3. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    4. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    5. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    6. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    8. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    9. Cardoso, Eliana A. & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. "Foreign private capital flows," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1387-1439, Elsevier.
    10. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    11. Boyce, James K., 1992. "The revolving door? External debt and capital flight: A Philippine case study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 335-349, March.
    12. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    13. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    15. R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    16. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1981. "Alternative theories of illegal trade : Economic consequences and statistical detection," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(3), pages 409-427, September.
    17. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa06-1.
    19. Fedderke, J. W. & Liu, W., 2002. "Modelling the determinants of capital flows and capital flight: with an application to South African data from 1960 to 1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-444, May.
    20. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Empirics Of China'S Outward Direct Investment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 312-341, August.
    21. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2013. "Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 2013/189, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Oliver D. Babson & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, April.
    24. Valerie Cerra & Meenakshi Rishi & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1190-1213.
    25. Sakakibara, Eisuke & Yamakawa, Sharon, 2003. "Regional integration in East Asia :challenges and opportunities - Part II : Trade, finance and integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3079, The World Bank.
    26. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. kant, C., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Flight," Princeton Studies in International Economics 80, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    28. Cuddington, John T., 1987. "Capital flight ," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 382-388.
    29. Sakakibara, Eisuke & Yamakawa, Sharon, 2003. "Regional integration in East Asia : challenges and opportunities - Part 1: history and institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3078, The World Bank.
    30. Edsel L. Beja, 2008. "Estimating Trade Mis‐invoicing from China: 2000–2005," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 82-92, March.
    31. Diwan, Ishac, 1989. "Foreign debt, crowding out and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 121-136, March.
    32. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    33. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1990. "Capital flight from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    34. Gunter, Frank R., 2004. "Capital flight from China: 1984-2001," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January.
    35. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Introduction to "Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 1-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
    37. David Hummels & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2006. "Are Matched Partner Trade Statistics a Usable Measure of Transportation Costs?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-86, February.
    38. Gunter, Frank R., 1996. "Capital flight from the People's Republic of China: 1984-1994," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    2. Sugata Marjit & Suryaprakash Mishra, 2023. "Credit market imperfection, lack of entrepreneurship and capital outflow from a developing economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1855-1873, August.
    3. Mercy W. Mwangi & Amos G. Njuguna & George O. Achoki, 2019. "Relationship between corruption and capital flight in Kenya: 1998-2018," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(5), pages 237-250, September.
    4. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2017. "The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis," Working Papers 062017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Ning, Ye & Zhang, Lingxiang, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of short-term international capital flows in China: A Markov regime switching approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 193-203.
    8. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    9. Biswas, Amit K. & von Hagen, Jürgen & Sarkar, Sandip, 2022. "FDI Mismatch, trade Mis-reporting, and hidden capital Movements: The USA - China case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Development aid and illicit capital flight: Evidence from Nepal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2305-2336, July.
    11. Sarah Chan, 2017. "Assessing China’s recent capital outflows: policy challenges and implications," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Anna Wong, 2017. "China’s Current Account : External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Hinrich Voss & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Ping Zheng, 2018. "A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 4-23, January.
    14. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    15. Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele & Mom Aloysius Njong, 2020. "Capital flight and diamond exports in the Central African Republic: The role of political governance crisis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 362-374, September.
    16. Subhasish Das & Amit K. Biswas, 2021. "Trade Mis-Invoicing Between India & USA: An Empirical Exercise," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 7-30, February.
    17. Hasnul, Al Gifari & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Role of instability in affecting capital flight magnitude: An ARDL bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 72086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Kai-Hua Wang & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao, 2019. "Does the Mundell-Fleming model fit in China?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 11-28.
    20. Yin-Wong CheungAuthor-Workplace-Name: City University of Hong Kong & Matthew S. Yiu, 2016. "Offshore Renminbi Trading: Findings from the 2013 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey," Working Papers 142016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Huachen Li & Tiezheng Song, 2024. "Regime dependent dynamics of parallel and official exchange markets in China: evidence from cryptocurrency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(41), pages 4952-4973, September.
    22. Das, Subhasish & Biswas, Amit K., 2023. "Can authorities curtail falsified trade & investment data that hide capital movements? Evidence from flows between BRICS and the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 957-974.
    23. He, Qing & Wang, Wenqing & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Exchange rate co-movements and corporate foreign exchange exposures: A study on RMB," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Seung-Gwang Baek & Doo Yong Yang, 2010. "Institutional Quality, Captal Flight and Capital Flows," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 121-155.
    4. Sebri, Maamar & Dachraoui, Hajer, 2020. "Resources bless BRICS," MPRA Paper 100423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Development aid and illicit capital flight: Evidence from Nepal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2305-2336, July.
    6. Heydari, Hassan & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Analyzing Effective Factors of Capital Outflow from the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hajer Dachraoui & Maamar Sebri & Mahmoud M. A. Dwedar, 2021. "Natural Resources and Illicit Financial Flows from BRICS Countries," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    10. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2017. "The Capital Flight From India: A Case Of Missing Woods For Trees?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 365-383, January.
    11. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    12. Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Tunisia, natural resources, and capital flight," EconStor Preprints 218970, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    14. Jean Claude Kouakou Brou & Mamadou Thiam, 2023. "External debt and capital flight in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of institutions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1642-1655.
    15. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    16. Leonce Ndikumana & Mare Sarr, 2019. "Capital Flight, Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources in Africa," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    17. Ndikumana, Léonce & Sarr, Mare, 2019. "Capital flight, foreign direct investment and natural resources in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Kouakou Jean Claude Brou & M. Thiam, 2023. "External debt and capital flight in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of institutions [Dette extérieure et fuite des capitaux en Afrique subsaharienne : Le rôle des institutions]," Post-Print hal-04540643, HAL.
    19. Léonce Ndikumana & Mare Sarr, 2016. "Capital flight and foreign direct investment in Africa: An investigation of the role of natural resource endowment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-58, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Vukšić, Goran, 2013. "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-46.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Bank Residual Method; Trade Misinvoicing; Quantitative Easing; Capital Controls; Covered Interest Disparity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Karin Wessler-Rensmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieosnde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.