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Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Carola Conces Binder
  • Rodrigo Sekkel
Abstract
Central banks’ forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada, focusing especially on recent developments. After describing these central banks’ forecasting frameworks, we discuss the literature on central bank forecast evaluation and new tests of unbiasedness and efficiency. We also discuss evidence of central banks’ informational advantage over private sector forecasters—which appears to have weakened over time—and how central bank forecasts may affect private sector expectations even in the absence of an informational advantage. We discuss how the Great Recession led central banks to evaluate their forecasting frameworks and how the COVID-19 pandemic has further challenged central bank forecasting. Finally, we consider directions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-18
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shafiq Ur Rehman & Sajjad Nawaz Khan & Waseem Subhani & Iftikhar Mehboob & Muhammad Noman Yaseen & Asad Qayoom, 2023. "Impact of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and Fintech Investment on Central Bank Policy and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(3), pages 202-210.
    3. Muhammed Bulutay, 2024. "Better than Perceived? Correcting Misperceptions about Central Bank Inflation Forecasts," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0034, Berlin School of Economics.
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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