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Effects of Fed policy rate forecasts on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriele Galati
  • Richhild Moessner
Abstract
We study the effects of quantitative policy rate forecasts by the Federal Reserve on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We study the effects of surprises in policy rate forecasts from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on real yields and breakeven inflation rates derived from government bonds for forward rates across the yield curve. We find that surprises in the SEP policy rate forecasts significantly affect real yields in the expected direction across the yield curve. By contrast, breakeven inflation rates are little affected across the yield curve. In particular, five-year breakeven inflation rates five years ahead, a common measure of monetary policy credibility, are not significantly affected by surprises in SEP policy rate forecasts. This suggests that policy rate forecasts by the Fed at the ZLB managed to affect real yields without adversely affecting monetary policy credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "Effects of Fed policy rate forecasts on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 873, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:873
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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    3. Boris Hofmann & Dora Xia, 2022. "Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections," BIS Working Papers 1009, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; policy rate forecasts; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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