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Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models

Author

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  • Siddhartha Chib
  • Minchul Shin
  • Anna Simoni
Abstract
We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed to satisfy a sequence of unconditional moments based on an increasing (in sample size) vector of approximating functions (such as tensor splines based on the splines of each conditioning variable). For any given sample size, results are robust to the number of expanded moments. We derive Bernstein-von Mises theorems for the behavior of the posterior distribution under both correct and incorrect specification of the conditional moments, subject to growth rate conditions (slower under misspecification) on the number of approximating functions. A large-sample theory for comparing different conditional moment models is also developed. The central result is that the marginal likelihood criterion selects the model that is less misspecified. We also introduce sparsity-based model search for high-dimensional conditioning variables, and provide efficient MCMC computations for high-dimensional parameters. Along with clarifying examples, the framework is illustrated with real-data applications to risk-factor determination in finance, and causal inference under conditional ignorability.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Anna Simoni, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional Moment Models," Papers 2110.13531, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2110.13531
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simoni, Anna, 2016. "Regularizing Priors For Linear Inverse Problems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 71-121, February.
    2. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Anna Simoni, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(524), pages 1656-1668, October.
    3. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simoni, Anna, 2012. "Nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression: A quasi-Bayesian approach based on regularized posterior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 458-475.
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    9. Jean-Pierre Florens & Anna Simoni, 2021. "Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Moment Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 482-492, March.
    10. Donald, Stephen G. & Imbens, Guido W. & Newey, Whitney K., 2009. "Choosing instrumental variables in conditional moment restriction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(1), pages 28-36, September.
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    12. Sueishi, Naoya, 2013. "Identification problem of the exponential tilting estimator under misspecification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 509-511.
    13. Nicole A. Lazar, 2003. "Bayesian empirical likelihood," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(2), pages 319-326, June.
    14. Siddhartha Chib & Xiaming Zeng, 2020. "Which Factors are Risk Factors in Asset Pricing? A Model Scan Framework," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 771-783, October.
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    18. Chib, Siddhartha & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2010. "Tailored randomized block MCMC methods with application to DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 19-38, March.
    19. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
    20. Liao, Yuan & Jiang, Wenxin, 2011. "Posterior consistency of nonparametric conditional moment restricted models," MPRA Paper 38700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhichao Liu & Catherine Forbes & Heather Anderson, 2017. "Robust Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood method," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Chung, Ray S.W. & So, Mike K.P. & Chu, Amanda M.Y. & Chan, Thomas W.C., 2020. "Regularization of Bayesian quasi-likelihoods constructed from complex estimating functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2020. "Computing Bayes: Bayesian Computation from 1763 to the 21st Century," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods," Papers 2308.16192, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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