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Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: A comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus

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  • Svanidze, Miranda
  • Götz, Linde Johanna
  • Đurić, Ivan
  • Glauben, Thomas
Abstract
We investigate wheat price relationships between the import-dependent countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and the Black Sea wheat exporters to assess wheat market efficiency which is crucial for ensuring availability and access to wheat and for reducing food insecurity. Results of linear and threshold error correction models suggest strong influence of trade costs on market integration in Central Asia, while those costs are of minor importance in the South Caucasus. In particular, wheat trade in Central Asia is characterized not only by higher transportation costs but also unofficial payments play a large role. In addition, wheat price volatility is substantially higher in the wheat importing countries of Central Asia compared to the South Caucasus. To foster market functioning, wheat trade should be facilitated by policies reducing trade costs. This includes investments in grain market infrastructure, eliminating unofficial payments, but also resolving geopolitical conflicts. However, wheat trade in this region is characterized by large distances, low scope for import diversification and repeated export restrictions by Black Sea exporters. Therefore, trade enhancing policies should be complemented with policies increasing wheat self-sufficiency to enhance food security.

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  • Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde Johanna & Đurić, Ivan & Glauben, Thomas, 2019. "Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: A comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus," IAMO Discussion Papers 183, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:183
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    2. António Miguel Martins, 2024. "Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 619-630, April.
    3. Miranda Svanidze & Ivan Đurić, 2021. "Global Wheat Market Dynamics: What Is the Role of the EU and the Black Sea Wheat Exporters?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Duric, Ivan & Glauben, Thomas, 2020. "Heterogeneous impact of price spikes across countries and supply chain actors: An evidence from Central Asia and the Caucasus. A review," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 92-100.
    5. Tleubayev, Alisher & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Götz, Linde, 2022. "Agricultural policies and technical efficiency of wheat production in Kazakhstan and Russia: Evidence from a stochastic frontier approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 407-421.
    6. Svanidze, Miranda & Đurić, Ivan, 2021. "Global wheat market dynamics: What is the role of the EU and the Black Sea wheat exporters?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(8).
    7. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Combining household and price data to target food marketing interventions in Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 493-505, April.
    8. Erokhin, Vasilii & Ivolga, Anna & Lazareva, Natalia & Germanova, Victoria & Igonina, Elena & Sofin, Alexander, 2024. "China—Eastern Europe Agricultural Trade: (Dis)Advantages and Policy Responses," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 5(2), June.
    9. Vasilii Erokhin & Li Diao & Peiran Du, 2020. "Sustainability-Related Implications of Competitive Advantages in Agricultural Value Chains: Evidence from Central Asia—China Trade and Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
    10. Tiia‐Maria Pasanen & Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2022. "A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1282-1302, November.
    11. Maximilian Heigermoser & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "Price formation within Egypt's wheat tender market: Implications for Black Sea exporters," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 819-831, September.

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    Keywords

    price transmission; wheat market integration; transportation costs; food security; Central Asia; the South Caucasus;
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