[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v52y2021i5p819-831.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price formation within Egypt's wheat tender market: Implications for Black Sea exporters

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilian Heigermoser
  • Linde Götz
  • Miranda Svanidze
Abstract
Black Sea wheat exporters, led by Russia, dominate Egypt's wheat imports via a tender system. The tenders are managed by the GASC and their outcomes are communicated worldwide by financial news agencies. Building on a transaction‐specific dataset on GASC tenders (2011 ‐ 2019), results of our cointegration analysis find wheat export markets of Russia, France and the USA highly integrated with the GASC tender price. Estimates from the multivariate VECM indicate strong price interdependencies between the GASC tender price and Russian and French export prices, indicating fierce competition in the GASC tender market. Despite the high market share of wheat exporters in the Black Sea region and Russia in particular, tests on weak exogeneity suggest a leading role of the French wheat export price. We further find that leadership of US wheat prices is weak in the GASC tender market.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Heigermoser & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "Price formation within Egypt's wheat tender market: Implications for Black Sea exporters," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 819-831, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:52:y:2021:i:5:p:819-831
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12656
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12656
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.12656?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2006. "Market Delineation and Price Leadership in the World Wheat Market: A Cointegration Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 311-326, October.
    2. Ivan Djuric & Linde Götz & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Are Export Restrictions an Effective Instrument to Insulate Domestic Prices Against Skyrocketing World Market Prices? The Wheat Export Ban in Serbia," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 215-228, April.
    3. Barry K. Goodwin, 1992. "Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of one Price: A Clarification and Correction," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 337-338.
    4. Frank Asche & Helge Bremnes & Cathy R. Wessells, 1999. "Product Aggregation, Market Integration, and Relationships between Prices: An Application to World Salmon Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 568-581.
    5. Nigatu, Getachew & Adjemian, Michael, 2020. "A Wavelet Analysis of Price Integration in Major Agricultural Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 117-134, February.
    6. Stephen A. Rhoades, 1993. "The Herfindahl-Hirschman index," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Mar, pages 188-189.
    7. Raghbendra Jha (ed.), 2008. "The Indian Economy Sixty Years After Independence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-22833-7, March.
    8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    10. Sekhar, C.S.C., 2012. "Agricultural market integration in India: An analysis of select commodities," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 309-322.
    11. repec:zbw:iamodp:285032 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde, 2019. "Spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia: Implications of high trade costs for export potential," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21, pages 60-68.
    13. Carlos Arnade & Gary Vocke, 2016. "Seasonal Variation in the Price Discovery Process of International Wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-32, January.
    14. Hassanzoy, Najibullah & Ito, Shoichi & Isoda, Hiroshi & Amekawa, Yuichiro, 2016. "The Effects Of Swings In Global Wheat Prices On The Domestic Markets In Afghanistan," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, October.
    15. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Glauben, Thomas, 2019. "Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 733-752.
    16. Shahidur Rashid, 2004. "Spatial Integration of Maize Markets in Post-liberalised Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 13(1), pages 102-133, March.
    17. Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2016. "Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine [Regionale Weizenpreiseffekte von Wetterextremen und Weizenexportkontrollen in Russland und de," IAMO Discussion Papers 154, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    18. Guillaume Pierre & Jonathan Kaminski, 2019. "Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 79-90, January.
    19. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Sergio René Araujo‐Enciso & Thomas Fellmann, 2020. "Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 493-516, June.
    21. Joseph P. Janzen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2017. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1188-1207.
    22. Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2013. "Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 214-226.
    23. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1997. "Impulse response analysis in infinite order cointegrated vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 127-157, November.
    24. Schierhorn, Florian & Müller, Daniel & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Faramarzi, Monireh & Balmann, Alfons, 2014. "The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(3-4), pages 133-141.
    25. Kateryna Goychuk & William H. Meyers, 2014. "Black Sea and World Wheat Market Price Integration Analysis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(2), pages 245-261, June.
    26. Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
    27. Gloria González-Rivera & Steven M. Helfand, 2001. "The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 576-592.
    28. Linde Götz & Ivan Djuric & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2016. "Regional Price Effects of Extreme Weather Events and Wheat Export Controls in Russia and Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 741-763, September.
    29. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    31. Barry K. Goodwin, 1992. "Multivariate Cointegration Tests and the Law of One Price in International Wheat Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 117-124.
    32. Rico Ihle & Bernhard Brümmer & Stanley R. Thompson, 2012. "Structural change in European calf markets: decoupling and the blue tongue disease," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(1), pages 157-180, February.
    33. Frank Asche & Ole Gjølberg & Atle G. Guttormsen, 2012. "Testing the central market hypothesis: a multivariate analysis of Tanzanian sorghum markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 115-123, January.
    34. Samarendu Mohanty & William H. Meyers & Darnell B. Smith, 1999. "A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(1), pages 21-29, March.
    35. repec:zbw:iamodp:235157 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Raghbendra Jha & K. V. Bhanu Murthy & Anurag Sharma, 2008. "Market Integration in Wholesale Rice Markets in India," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Raghbendra Jha (ed.), The Indian Economy Sixty Years After Independence, chapter 13, pages 233-246, Palgrave Macmillan.
    37. Carlos Arnade & Linwood Hoffman, 2019. "Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(6), pages 735-747, November.
    38. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    39. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335634 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Abay, Kibrom A. & Abdelfattah, Lina & Breisinger, Clemens & Siddig, Khalid, 2023. "Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in less developed and fragile markets: The case of Sudan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    4. Götz, Linde Johanna & Svanidze, Miranda, 2023. "Getreidehandel und Exportbeschränkungen während des Ukrainekrieges," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 103(13 (Konfe), pages 37-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miranda Svanidze & Ivan Đurić, 2021. "Global Wheat Market Dynamics: What Is the Role of the EU and the Black Sea Wheat Exporters?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Svanidze, Miranda & Đurić, Ivan, 2021. "Global wheat market dynamics: What is the role of the EU and the Black Sea wheat exporters?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(8).
    3. Heigermoser, Maximilian & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2018. "Egypt’S Wheat Tenders – A Public Notice Board For Black Sea Grain Notations?," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275853, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Stanislav Yugay & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2024. "Impact of the Ruble exchange rate regime and Russia's war in Ukraine on wheat prices in Russia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 384-411, March.
    5. Tleubayev, Alisher & Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68.
    6. Alisher Tleubayev & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Linde Gotz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68, October.
    7. Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Ivan Djuric & Thomas Glauben, 2019. "Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(3), pages 733-752, June.
    8. Rashid, Shahidur, 2011. "Intercommodity price transmission and food price policies: An analysis of Ethiopian cereal markets," ESSP working papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Ghoshray, Atanu & Lloyd, Tim A., 2003. "Price Linkages In The International Wheat Market," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde, 2019. "Spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia: Implications of high trade costs for export potential," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21, pages 60-68.
    11. Bley, Jorg & Chen, Kim Heng, 2006. "Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets: The dawn of a new era," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 75-91, September.
    12. repec:zbw:iamodp:285032 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde, 2019. "Determinants of spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Zafeiriou, Eleni & Arabatzis, Garyfallos & Koutroumanidis, Theodoros, 2011. "The fuelwood market in Greece: An empirical approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3008-3018, August.
    15. Bley, Jorg, 2009. "European stock market integration: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-776, December.
    16. Sergio René Araujo‐Enciso & Thomas Fellmann, 2020. "Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 493-516, June.
    17. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2006. "Stock Prices and Bank Loan Dynamics in a Developing Country: The Case of Malaysia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 71-89, May.
    18. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
    19. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    20. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q3-131-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Wilkinson, Katherine J. & Young, Martin R. & Young, Shirley, 2001. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: Evidence from New Zealand and Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 427-455, August.
    22. Levent Korap, 2009. "Parasal Buyume ve Tuketici Enflasyonu Degisim Orani Arasindaki Nedensellik Iliskisi Uzerine Bir Deneme: Turkiye Ornegi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 56-74, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:52:y:2021:i:5:p:819-831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.