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Do Pre-Registration and Pre-analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?

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  • Abel Brodeur, Nikolai M. Cook, Jonathan S. Hartley, Anthony Heyes
Abstract
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prominent in economics, with pre-registration and pre-analysis plans (PAPs) promoted as important in ensuring the credibility of findings. We investigate whether these tools reduce the extent of p-hacking and publication bias by collecting and studying the universe of test statistics, 15,992 in total, from RCTs published in 15 leading economics journals from 2018 through 2021. In our primary analysis, we find no meaningful difference in the distribution of test statistics from pre-registered studies, compared to their non-pre-registered counterparts. However, pre-registered studies that have a complete PAP are significantly less p-hacked. These results point to the importance of PAPs, rather than pre-registration in itself, in ensuring credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel Brodeur, Nikolai M. Cook, Jonathan S. Hartley, Anthony Heyes, 2022. "Do Pre-Registration and Pre-analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?," LCERPA Working Papers am0132, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:am0132
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    Cited by:

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    3. Danielle V. Handel & Eric A. Hanushek, 2024. "Contexts of Convenience: Generalizing from Published Evaluations of School Finance Policies," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 461-494, June.
    4. Thibaut Arpinon & Romain Espinosa, 2023. "A Practical Guide to Registered Reports for Economists," Post-Print halshs-03897719, HAL.
    5. Sam Sims & Jake Anders & Matthew Inglis & Hugues Lortie-Forgues & Ben Styles & Ben Weidmann, 2023. "Experimental education research: rethinking why, how and when to use random assignment," CEPEO Working Paper Series 23-07, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pre-analysis plan; Pre-registration; p-Hacking; Publication bias; Research credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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