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Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Causal Inference in Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Abel Brodeur

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)

  • Nikolai Cook

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)

  • Anthony Heyes

    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, and University of Sussex)

Abstract
The economics 'credibility revolution' has promoted the identification of causal relationships using difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV), randomized control trials (RCT) and regression discontinuity design (RDD) methods. The extent to which a reader should trust claims about the statistical significance of results proves very sensitive to method. Applying multiple methods to 13,440 hypothesis tests reported in 25 top economics journals in 2015, we show that selective publication and p-hacking is a substantial problem in research employing DID and (in particular) IV. RCT and RDD are much less problematic. Almost 25% of claims of marginally significant results in IV papers are misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel Brodeur & Nikolai Cook & Anthony Heyes, 2018. "Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Causal Inference in Economics," Working Papers 1809E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:1809e
    as

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    File URL: https://socialsciences.uottawa.ca/economics/sites/socialsciences.uottawa.ca.economics/files/1809e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research methods; causal inference; p-curves; p-hacking; publication bias.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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