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Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?

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  • Baptiste Perrissin Fabert
  • Antonin Pottier
  • Etienne Espagne
  • Patrice Dumas
  • Franck Nadaud
Abstract
Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers’ commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 °C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of “worldviews” in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those “non-compliers” we discriminate ”involuntary non-compliers” who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from ”deliberate compliers” for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of ”deliberate non-compliers” dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 °C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Baptiste Perrissin Fabert & Antonin Pottier & Etienne Espagne & Patrice Dumas & Franck Nadaud, 2014. "Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 337-349, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:3:p:337-349
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1222-0
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    2. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2017. "Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17040, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Emmanuel Bovari & Oskar Lecuyer & Florent Mc Isaac, 2018. "Debt and damages: What are the chances of staying under the 2C warming threshold?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 155, pages 92-108.
    4. Michel Aglietta & Etienne Espagne, 2016. "Climate and finance systemic risks, more than an analogy? The climate fragility hypothesis," Working Papers 2016-10, CEPII research center.
    5. Alfredo Sirkis & J.C Hourcade & Dipak Dasgupta & Rogério Studart & Kevin Gallagher & B Perrissin-Fabert & José Eli da Veiga & Etienne Espagne & Michele Stua & Michel Aglietta, 2015. "Moving the trillions a debate on positive pricing of mitigation actions," Post-Print hal-01692638, HAL.

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