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The comparative impact of Integrated Assessment Models' structures on optimal mitigation policies

Author

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  • Baptiste Perrissin Fabert

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Etienne Espagne

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Antonin Pottier

    (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrice Dumas

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

Abstract
This paper aims at providing a consistent framework to appraise alternative modeling choices that have driven the so-called "when flexibility" controversy since the early 1990s, dealing with the optimal timing of mitigation efforts and the social cost of carbon (SCC). The literature has emphasized the critical impact of modeling structures on the optimal climate policy. We estimate within a unified framework the comparative impact of modeling structures and investigate the structural modeling drivers of differences in climate policy recommendations. We use the integrated assessment model (IAM) RESPONSE to capture a wide array of modeling choices. Specifically, we analyse four emblematic modeling choices, namely the forms of the damage function (quadratic vs. sigmoid) and the abatement cost (with or without inertia), the treatment of uncertainty, and the decision framework, deterministic or sequential, with different dates of information arrival. We define an original methodology based on an equivalence criterion to compare modeling structures, and we estimate their comparative impact on two outputs: the optimal SCC and abatement trajectories. We exhibit three key findings: (1) IAMs with a quadratic damage function are insensitive to changes of other features of the modeling structure, (2) IAMs involving a non-convex damage function entail contrasting climate strategies, (3) Precautionary behaviors can only come up in IAMs with non-convexities in damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Baptiste Perrissin Fabert & Etienne Espagne & Antonin Pottier & Patrice Dumas, 2015. "The comparative impact of Integrated Assessment Models' structures on optimal mitigation policies," Post-Print hal-01298343, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01298343
    DOI: 10.1007/s10666-015-9443-9
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://enpc.hal.science/hal-01298343v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2021. "Social Cost of Carbon Under Stochastic Tipping Points," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 709-737, April.
    2. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 873-890, November.
    3. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2017. "Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17040, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Birg, Laura & Voßwinkel, Jan S., 2015. "Minimum quality standards and non-compliance," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 228, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Climate change and population: an integrated assessment of mortality due to health impacts," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20029, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2019. "Social Cost of Carbon under stochastic tipping points: when does risk play a role?," Working Papers 2019.11, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    7. Méjean, Aurélie & Pottier, Antonin & Zuber, Stéphane & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Pottier, Antonin & Fleurbaey, Marc & Méjean, Aurélie & Zuber, Stéphane, 2021. "Climate change and population: An assessment of mortality due to health impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    9. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    10. Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Aurélie Méjean & Stéphane Zuber, 2021. "Climate change and population: an assessment of mortality due to health impacts," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03048602, HAL.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal mitigation policies;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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