[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v15y2023i1p53-71.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impacts of International Reserves on Monetary Independence in Emerging Countries: An Asymmetric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chee-Hong Law
Abstract
The level of international reserves could influence the monetary independence of a country. Nonetheless, this relationship is usually estimated in a single structural equation. This article examines the dynamics from a shock in a partial sum of negative and positive changes in the international reserves on monetary independence in 17 emerging countries from 1991 to 2015 by applying the panel vector regressive estimation. The Granger causality analysis indicates that a decline in the international reserve has a unidirectional impact on monetary independence. The impulse response analysis shows that the monetary independence moves in the same direction immediately after a change in the international reserves. The impact reverses a year later before returning to its initial trend. Besides, the negative partial sum of international reserves has a more lingering effect on monetary independence. Otherwise, the variance decomposition analysis suggests that the monetary independence movement is partially explained by the shock in international reserves, albeit the magnitude is relatively small. The outputs imply that sterilization has played a critical role in moderating the negative effect of raising international reserves on monetary independence. In sum, hoarding of international reserves needs to be complemented with effective sterilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Chee-Hong Law, 2023. "The Impacts of International Reserves on Monetary Independence in Emerging Countries: An Asymmetric Analysis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 53-71, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:53-71
    DOI: 10.1177/09749101211073933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09749101211073933
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09749101211073933?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Thomas Philippon & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, 2001. "Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 2001/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 773-787, May.
    6. M S Mohanty & Michela Scatigna, 2005. "Has globalisation reduced monetary policy independence?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and monetary policy in emerging markets, volume 23, pages 17-58, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    10. Hiro Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23967, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016.
    13. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2011. "Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 371-388.
    14. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    15. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Nataraj, Geethanjali & Sahoo, Pravakar, 2011. "Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 471-482.
    16. Chee-Hong Law, 2018. "International reserves and trilemma policy convergence in Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 535-538, May.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," NBER Working Papers 20893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Moritz Cruz & Bernard Walters, 2008. "Is the accumulation of international reserves good for development?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 665-681, September.
    19. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    20. W. Jos Jansen, 2008. "Inside The Impossible Triangle: Monetary Policy Autonomy In A Credible Target Zone," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 216-228, April.
    21. Saibal Ghosh, 2009. "Industry Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 89-105, July.
    22. David Hauner, 2006. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 169-195, August.
    23. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    24. Yashvir Algu & Kenneth Creamer, 2017. "Evaluating South Africa's Open Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(2), pages 196-221, June.
    25. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2018. "The role of international reserves holding in buffering external shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3128-3147, June.
    26. Padhan, Hemachandra & Sahu, Santosh Kumar & Dash, Umakant, 2021. "Non-linear analysis of international reserve, trade and trilemma in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    27. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    28. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    29. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    30. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    31. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    32. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    34. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "Large Hoarding Of International Reserves And The Emerging Global Economic Architecture," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 487-503, September.
    35. Audrey Allegret Sallenave & Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2018. "The role of international reserves holding in buffering external shocks," Post-Print hal-03573562, HAL.
    36. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    37. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie David Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2013. "The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 447-458, August.
    39. Christopher F Baum, 2001. "Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 1(1), pages 101-104, November.
    40. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Wei-Theng Lau, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 212-235, April.
    41. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    42. Yu You & Yoonbai Kim & Xiaomei Ren, 2014. "Do Capital Controls Enhance Monetary Independence?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 475-489, August.
    43. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & F. Brown, 2002. "Demand for international reserves: a review article," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-1226.
    44. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Monika Papież & Sławomir Śmiech, 2019. "Monetary Independence of Central and Eastern European Economies with Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 295-316, July.
    45. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    46. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Wei-Theng Lau, 2019. "The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 212-235, April.
    2. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    3. Quy Ta & Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy, 2022. "“How Do Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes”," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 945-971, November.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2023. "The Impacts of Financial Crises on the Trilemma Configurations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 479-517, July.
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Irineu da Silva Rodrigues Júnior & Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Linican Monteiro Batista, 2024. "Effects of monetary policy credibility and the open economy trilemma on monetary policy efficiency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1236-1258, April.
    6. Chee-Hong Law & Chee-Lip Tee & Say Keat Ooi, 2019. "Threshold effect of Financial Integration on Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(1), pages 61-81.
    7. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    9. Chee-Hong Law & Siok Kun Sek, 2022. "Panel evidence of the dynamics between energy consumption and trade openness in ASEAN and East Asia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(3), pages 449-471, May.
    10. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 2016/108, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    12. Abebe Hailemariam & Tutsirai Sakutukwa & Ratbek Dzhumashev, 2021. "Long-term determinants of income inequality: evidence from panel data over 1870–2016," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1935-1958, October.
    13. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Monetary Policy Spillovers under Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 98852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    15. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    16. Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex & Popper, Helen, 2012. "Is there a Beijing Consensus on International Macroeconomic Policy?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1933-1943.
    17. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    18. Alexandra-Anca Purcel, 2020. "Developing states and the green challenge. A dynamic approach," Post-Print hal-03182341, HAL.
    19. Alexandra-Anca PURCEL, 2020. "Developing States and the Green Challenge. A Dynamic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 173-193, July.
    20. Kumar Debasis Dutta & Mallika Saha, 2023. "Does financial development cause sustainable development? A PVAR approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 879-917, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:53-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.