[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2020i2p173-193.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing States and the Green Challenge. A Dynamic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra-Anca PURCEL

    (School of Economics & CERDI, University of Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France. Department of Statistics-Forecasts-Mathematics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.)

Abstract
This paper studies the effects of output, urbanization, energy intensity, and renewable energy on aggregated and sector-specific CO2 emissions for a rich sample of developing states. We employ the recently developed GMM panel VAR technique, which allows us to tackle the potential endogeneity issue and capture both the current and future impact of indicators on CO2 via the impulse-response analysis. On the one hand, robust to several alternative specifications, the findings indicate that output, urbanization, and energy intensity increase the aggregated CO2 emissions, while renewable energy exhibits an opposite effect. Moreover, regarding the CO2 responsiveness to output and urbanization shocks, the pattern may suggest that these countries are likely to attain the threshold that would trigger a decline in CO2 emissions. We also reveal heterogeneities related to both countries’ economic development and Kyoto Protocol ratification/ascension status. On the other hand, the sectoral analysis unveils that the transportation, buildings, and non-combustion sector tend to contribute more to increasing the future CO2 levels. Overall, our study may provide useful insights concerning environmental sustainability prospects in developing states.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra-Anca PURCEL, 2020. "Developing States and the Green Challenge. A Dynamic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 173-193, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:2:p:173-193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_20/rjef2_2020p173-193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2012. "A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 164-177.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2019. "Crises and emissions: New empirical evidence from a large sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 880-895.
    6. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Maruotti, Antonello, 2011. "The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1344-1353, May.
    7. Zhu, Hui-Ming & You, Wan-Hai & Zeng, Zhao-fa, 2012. "Urbanization and CO2 emissions: A semi-parametric panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 848-850.
    8. Aldea, Anamaria & Ciobanu, Anamaria & Stancu, Ion, 2012. "The Renewable Energy Development: A Nonparametric Efficiency Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-19, March.
    9. Perry Sadorsky, 2014. "The Effect of Urbanization and Industrialization on Energy Use in Emerging Economies: Implications for Sustainable Development," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 392-409, April.
    10. Atif Awad & Mohammed Hersi Warsame, 2017. "Climate Changes in Africa: Does Economic Growth Matter? A Semi-parametric Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8.
    11. Sadorsky, Perry, 2009. "Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4021-4028, October.
    12. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    15. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    16. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    17. Lazăr, Dorina & Minea, Alexandru & Purcel, Alexandra-Anca, 2019. "Pollution and economic growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1121-1131.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    19. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Kahia, Montassar, 2019. "Impact of renewable energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions and economic growth in the MENA region: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 198-213.
    20. Chen, Shiyi & Jin, Hao & Lu, Yulin, 2019. "Impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions and energy consumption structure: A panel data analysis for Chinese prefecture-level cities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-119.
    21. Talbi, Besma, 2017. "CO2 emissions reduction in road transport sector in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 232-238.
    22. Bakirtas, Tahsin & Akpolat, Ahmet Gokce, 2018. "The relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in new emerging-market countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 110-121.
    23. Brückner, Markus, 2012. "Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 26-36.
    24. Buhari DOĞAN & Osman DEĞER, 2018. "The Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the E7 Countries: Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 63-75, December.
    25. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    26. Alexandra-Anca Purcel, 2019. "Does Political Stability Hinder Pollution? Evidence From Developing States," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 75-98, December.
    27. Wang, Ping & Wu, Wanshui & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-71.
    28. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    29. Li, Tingting & Wang, Yong & Zhao, Dingtao, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: New evidence from dynamic panel analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-147.
    30. Wen-Chi Liu, 2013. "The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Output: A Frequency Domain Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 44-55, December.
    31. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    32. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    33. Bölük, Gülden & Mert, Mehmet, 2014. "Fossil & renewable energy consumption, GHGs (greenhouse gases) and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of EU (European Union) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 439-446.
    34. Wang, Yuan & Han, Rong & Kubota, Jumpei, 2016. "Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve for SO2 emissions? A semi-parametric panel data analysis for China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1182-1188.
    35. Jebali, Eya & Essid, Hédi & Khraief, Naceur, 2017. "The analysis of energy efficiency of the Mediterranean countries: A two-stage double bootstrap DEA approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 991-1000.
    36. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    37. Shahbaz, muhammad & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Sbia, Rashid & Bibi, Sadia, 2015. "Does Energy Intensity Contribute to CO2 Emissions? A Trivariate Analysis in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 64335, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2015.
    38. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    39. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    40. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: An ethical dilemma," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 808-824.
    41. Dogan, Eyup & Seker, Fahri, 2016. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 429-439.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huan YAN & Xiaojing LI & Shuang MENG, 2023. "Global Value Chain Participation and Sustainable Growth: Evidence from China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-20, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandra-Anca Purcel, 2020. "Developing states and the green challenge. A dynamic approach," Post-Print hal-03182341, HAL.
    2. João Leitão & Joaquim Ferreira, 2021. "Dynamic Effects of Material Production and Environmental Sustainability on Economic Vitality Indicators: A Panel VAR Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Marra, Alessandro & Colantonio, Emiliano, 2021. "The path to renewable energy consumption in the European Union through drivers and barriers: A panel vector autoregressive approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Giulia Caruso & Emiliano Colantonio & Stefano Antonio Gattone, 2020. "Relationships between Renewable Energy Consumption, Social Factors, and Health: A Panel Vector Auto Regression Analysis of a Cluster of 12 EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Rafei, Meysam & Esmaeili, Parisa & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2022. "A step towards environmental mitigation: How do economic complexity and natural resources matter? Focusing on different institutional quality level countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Wang, Jing & Rickman, Dan S. & Yu, Yihua, 2022. "Dynamics between global value chain participation, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel vector autoregression model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Vo, Long Hai & Le, Thai-Ha, 2021. "Eatery, energy, environment and economic system, 1970–2017: Understanding volatility spillover patterns in a global sample," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2019. "Applying panel vector autoregression to institutions, human capital, and output," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1633-1652, November.
    9. Igor Petruška & Eva Litavcová & Jana Chovancová, 2022. "Impact of Renewable Energy Sources and Nuclear Energy on CO 2 Emissions Reductions—The Case of the EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Okoye, Jude O., 2023. "Towards renewable energy generation and low greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: Performance of financial development and governance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Kazemzadeh, Emad & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Koengkan, Matheus & Shadmehri, Mohammad Taher Ahmadi, 2023. "Relationship between the share of renewable electricity consumption, economic complexity, financial development, and oil prices: A two-step club convergence and PVAR model approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 260-275.
    12. Dimitrios Karamanis, 2022. "Defence partnerships, military expenditure, investment, and economic growth: an analysis in PESCO countries," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 173, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    13. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2023. "‘Investing’ in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-30, January.
    14. Lau, Lin-Sea & Choong, Chee-Keong & Ng, Cheong-Fatt & Liew, Feng-Mei & Ching, Suet-Ling, 2019. "Is nuclear energy clean? Revisit of Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 12-20.
    15. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chee-Hong Law & Siok Kun Sek, 2022. "Panel evidence of the dynamics between energy consumption and trade openness in ASEAN and East Asia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(3), pages 449-471, May.
    17. López-Mendoza, Héctor & González-Álvarez, María A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2024. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Nurliyana Mohd Basri & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Noorasiah Sulaiman, 2020. "The Effects of Factors of Production Shocks on Labor Productivity: New Evidence Using Panel VAR Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-23, October.
    19. Renato Santiago & Matheus Koengkan & José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques, 2020. "The relationship between public capital stock, private capital stock and economic growth in the Latin American and Caribbean countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 293-317, September.
    20. Sigmund, Michael & Ferstl, Robert, 2021. "Panel vector autoregression in R with the package panelvar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 693-720.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; urbanization; energy efficiency; renewable energy; developing countries; environmental Kuzents curve; GMM panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2020:i:2:p:173-193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.