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Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Hiro Ito
Abstract
We examine the open macroeconomic policy choices of developing economies from the perspective of the economic "trilemma" hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the three trilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the three dimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging towards a "middle ground" among emerging market economies -- managed exchange rate flexibility underpinned by sizable holdings of international reserves, intermediate levels of monetary independence, and controlled financial integration. Emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater degree of policy divergence. Yet this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high international reserves/GDP holding.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," NBER Working Papers 17806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17806
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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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