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Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával
[Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]

Author

Listed:
  • Sebestyén, Tamás
  • Szabó, Norbert
  • Braun, Emese
  • Bedő, Zsolt
Abstract
A tanulmány a hidrogénalapú mobilitás helyi és országos gazdasági rezilienciára gyakorolt hatásait vizsgálja egy általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával. Az elemzés a GMR-Magyarország térbeli általános egyensúlyi modellt (SCGE) a hidrogénalapú mobilitás technológiai és pénzügyi jellemzőiről gyűjtött mikroadatokkal egészíti ki, amelyek egy pécsi, napenergia-alapú zöldhidrogénprojektből származnak. A hidrogénalapú mobilitási technológia új lokális ágazatként egészíti ki az alapul szolgáló térbeli általános egyensúlyi modellt. Ebben az elemzési keretben a gazdasági reziliencia számítására alkalmas indikátorokat vezetünk be, majd egy 50 százalékos világpiaci kőolajár-emelkedés gazdasági hatásait szimuláljuk a technológia jelenlétével és a nélkül. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy a hidrogénalapú mobilitás csökkenti a fosszilis üzemanyagok iránti keresletet, mérsékelve a kőolajár-ingadozások gazdasági kockázatait. Emellett növeli a helyi gazdaság keresletét különböző ágazatok - például a feldolgozóipar és vízellátás, valamint az elsődleges erőforrások (munka, tőke) - iránt. A hidrogéntechnológia bevezetése Baranya vármegye bruttó hozzáadott értékének visszaesését - főként a sokkhatás közvetlen hatásainak csökkentésével - 232,5 millió forinttal mérsékelte a vizsgált időszakban. Bár a technológia regionális hatásai kicsik, főként az energiaintenzív ágazatokban országosan pozitívak. A jövőbeni kutatások vizsgálhatják a technológia más régiókban és méretekben való hatásait, valamint az állami támogatás szükségességét a versenyképesség érdekében.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2217
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2024.11.1222
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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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