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Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses

Author

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  • Javier Barbero
  • Juan José de Lucio
  • Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0258356
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    2. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Marks-Bielska, Renata & Bórawski, Piotr 1 & Sierzputowska, Anna, 2023. "Światowa Pandemia Covid-19 A Rynek Pracy W Polsce," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2023(3).
    4. Lizbeth Salgado-Conrado & Carlos Álvarez-Macías & Laura-Andrea Pérez-García & Rodrigo Loera-Palomo, 2024. "COVID-19 Impacts on Mexican Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Arūnas Burinskas & Viktorija Cohen & Jolanta Droždz, 2023. "Supply Chain Interconnectedness in Times of Crises: A Gravity Model with DiD Analysis of COVID-19 Effects on Central and Eastern European Trade," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    7. Jamiu Olamilekan Badmus & Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu & Oluwadamilola Samuel Alawode, 2022. "Does COVID-19 shock endanger the flows of FDI in OECD? Empirical evidence based on AMG panel estimator," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Amjad Masood & Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2022. "Gravity of Covid-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 60-68.
      • Masood, Amjad & Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "Gravity of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 109651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. C.T. Vidya, 2024. "Dynamics of Trade Characteristics, Competition Networks, and Trade Fragility in ASEAN Economies," Working Papers DP-2023-27, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    11. Sangeeta Khorana & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Salamat Ali, 2023. "An anatomy of the impact of COVID‐19 on the global and intra‐Commonwealth trade in goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 550-579, May.
    12. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2022. "The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability," Papers 2201.12618, arXiv.org.
    13. Bashir Adelowo Wahab & Adamu Jibir & Musa Abdu, 2024. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Household Entrepreneurship in Nigeria: Do Crises Create Necessity-driven and/or Innovative Entrepreneurship?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 16(2), pages 270-286, May.
    14. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    15. Soojung Ahn & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 trade measures on agricultural and food trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 911-927, June.
    16. Taeil Kim & Sunghwa Park & Hanna Kim & Janghan Kwon, 2023. "Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade: Cases of Major Countries Using the SUR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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