[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/afbmau/341181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of the least cost option to manage pastures in a wet winter in south-eastern Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Young, Michael
  • Young, John
  • Kingwell, Ross S.
  • Vercoe, Philip E.
Abstract
Farm management occurs against a backdrop of weather-year variation. In Australian mixed enterprise farming systems, how important is it for farm optimisation models to capture this variation and the management tactics matched to that variation? This study compares two whole farm optimisation models of an Australian mixed enterprise farming system. One model represents weather-year variation and the short-term tactical management responses tailored to the unfolding weather-year conditions. The other model is a traditional deterministic steady state model that employs the key assumption that every year is an expected weather-year. Both models require the farm manager to select a profit-maximising suite of enterprises and activities relevant to either the expected weather-year or the suite of weather-years that typify weather-year variation where the farm is located. Comparison of the models’ results reveals key differences in farm strategy, farm tactics and farm profit. The model that includes tactics aligned to the weather-year variation reveals that tactical decision-making increases expected farm profit by about 18 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • Young, Michael & Young, John & Kingwell, Ross S. & Vercoe, Philip E., 2023. "Evaluation of the least cost option to manage pastures in a wet winter in south-eastern Australia," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 20(3), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:afbmau:341181
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.341181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/341181/files/AFBMJ-Vol-20-Paper-3-Young-et-al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.341181?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cacho, O. J. & Bywater, A. C. & Dillon, J. L., 1999. "Assessment of production risk in grazing models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 87-98, May.
    2. Kingwell, R. S. & Morrison, D. A. & Bathgate, A. D., 1992. "The effect of climatic risk on dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 153-175.
    3. David J. Pannell, 1996. "Lessons from a Decade of Whole-Farm Modeling in Western Australia," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 373-383.
    4. David J. Pannell, 2006. "Flat Earth Economics: The Far-reaching Consequences of Flat Payoff Functions in Economic Decision Making," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 553-566.
    5. Allan N. Rae, 1971. "An Empirical Application and Evaluation of Discrete Stochastic Programming in Farm Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(4), pages 625-638.
    6. Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Quiggin, John C., 2007. "Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(3), pages 1-19.
    7. Morrison, David A. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Ewing, Michael A., 1986. "A mathematical programming model of a crop-livestock farm system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 243-268.
    8. Bathgate, A. & Revell, C. & Kingwell, R., 2009. "Identifying the value of pasture improvement using wholefarm modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 48-57, October.
    9. Randall Jones & Oscar Cacho & Jack Sinden, 2006. "The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 245-256, November.
    10. Chambers,Robert G. & Quiggin,John, 2000. "Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622448, September.
    11. Schäfer, David & Britz, Wolfgang & Kuhn, Till, 2017. "Flexible Load of Existing Biogas Plants: A Viable Option to Reduce Environmental Externalities and to Provide Demand driven Electricity?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(2), June.
    12. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
    13. Thomas, Dean T. & Moore, Andrew D. & Bell, Lindsay W. & Webb, Nicholas P., 2018. "Ground cover, erosion risk and production implications of targeted management practices in Australian mixed farming systems: Lessons from the Grain and Graze program," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 123-135.
    14. Michael Young & Ross Kingwell & John Young & Phil Vercoe, 2020. "An economic analysis of sheep flock structures for mixed enterprise Australian farm businesses," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 677-699, July.
    15. Kingwell, Ross & Fuchsbichler, Amy, 2011. "The whole-farm benefits of controlled traffic farming: An Australian appraisal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(7), pages 513-521, September.
    16. Poole, M. L. & Turner, Neil C. & Young, J. M., 2002. "Sustainable cropping systems for high rainfall areas of southwestern Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 201-211, February.
    17. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    18. Anderson, Jock R., 1974. "Simulation: Methodology and Application in Agricultural Economics," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(01), pages 1-53, March.
    19. Tas Thamo & Ross S. Kingwell & David J. Pannell, 2013. "Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture: economic implications for policy and agricultural producers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 234-252, April.
    20. Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Mullen, John & Jones, Randall, 2013. "Representing climatic uncertainty in agricultural models – an application of state-contingent theory," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(3).
    21. Kopke, Emma & Young, John & Kingwell, Ross, 2008. "The relative profitability and environmental impacts of different sheep systems in a Mediterranean environment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-3), pages 85-94, March.
    22. Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
    23. Apland, Jeffrey & Hauer, Grant, 1993. "Discrete Stochastic Programming: Concepts, Examples And A Review Of Empirical Applications," Staff Papers 13793, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    24. Moore, A.D. & Holzworth, D.P. & Herrmann, N.I. & Huth, N.I. & Robertson, M.J., 2007. "The Common Modelling Protocol: A hierarchical framework for simulation of agricultural and environmental systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-3), pages 37-48, December.
    25. Jason Crean & Kevin Parton & John Mullen & Randall Jones, 2013. "Representing climatic uncertainty in agricultural models – an application of state-contingent theory," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(3), pages 359-378, July.
    26. O'Connell, Michael & Young, John & Kingwell, Ross, 2006. "The economic value of saltland pastures in a mixed farming system in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 371-389, September.
    27. J E Annetts & E Audsley, 2002. "Multiple objective linear programming for environmental farm planning," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(9), pages 933-943, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Finlayson, John & Real, Daniel & Nordblom, Tom & Revell, Clinton & Ewing, Mike & Kingwell, Ross, 2012. "Farm level assessments of a novel drought tolerant forage: Tedera (Bituminaria bituminosa C.H. Stirt var. albomarginata)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 38-47.
    2. Young, Michael & Young, John & Kingwell, Ross S. & Vercoe, Philip E., 2023. "Representing weather-year variation in whole-farm optimisation models: Four-stage single-sequence vs eight-stage multi-sequence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 68(01), September.
    3. Ghahramani, Afshin & Kingwell, Ross S. & Maraseni, Tek Narayan, 2020. "Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Mullen, John & Jones, Randall, 2013. "Representing climatic uncertainty in agricultural models – an application of state-contingent theory," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(3).
    5. Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Auricht, Christopher & Loch, Adam & Adamson, David & Quiggin, John, 2020. "Water allocation in Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin: Managing change under heightened uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 345-369.
    6. Michael Young & Ross Kingwell & John Young & Phil Vercoe, 2020. "An economic analysis of sheep flock structures for mixed enterprise Australian farm businesses," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 677-699, July.
    7. Kingwell, Ross, 1996. "Programming models of farm supply response: The impact of specification errors," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 307-324.
    8. Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Mullen, John & Hayman, Peter, 2015. "Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in a state-contingent manner," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(1), January.
    9. Hutchings, Timothy R. & Nordblom, Thomas L., 2011. "A financial analysis of the effect of the mix of crop and sheep enterprises on the risk profile of dryland farms in south-eastern Australia," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, October.
    10. Adamson, David, 2010. "Climate change, Irrigation and Pests: Examining Heliothis in the Murray Darling Basin," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149879, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    11. Kingwell, Ross & Fuchsbichler, Amy, 2011. "The whole-farm benefits of controlled traffic farming: An Australian appraisal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(7), pages 513-521, September.
    12. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Kragt, Marit E. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J., 2019. "Climate change reduces the mitigation obtainable from sequestration in an Australian farming system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    13. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    14. Kharel, S. & d'Abbadie, C. & Abadi, A. & Kingwell, R., 2022. "Reducing farming system emissions via spatial application of payoff functions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Torkamani, Javad, 2005. "Using a whole-farm modelling approach to assess prospective technologies under uncertainty," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 138-154, August.
    16. Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Quiggin, John C., 2007. "Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(3), pages 1-19.
    17. Ridier, Aude & Chaib, Karim & Roussy, Caroline, 2016. "A Dynamic Stochastic Programming model of crop rotation choice to test the adoption of long rotation under price and production risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 270-279.
    18. Schilizzi, S. G. M. & Kingwell, R. S., 1999. "Effects of climatic and price uncertainty on the value of legume crops in a Mediterranean-type environment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 55-69, May.
    19. Marshall, Graham R. & Jones, Randall E. & Wall, Lisa M., 1997. "Tactical Opportunities, Risk Attitude and Choice of Farming Strategy: an Application of the Distribution Method," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(4), pages 1-21.
    20. Adamson, David & Loch, Adam & Schwabe, Kurt, 2017. "Adaptation responses to increasing drought frequency," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(3), July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Farm Management;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:afbmau:341181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afbmnea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.