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How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context? The Views of an Expert Panel

Author

Listed:
  • Arrow, Kenneth J.
  • Cropper, Maureen L.

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Gollier, Christian
  • Groom, Ben
  • Heal, Geoffrey M.
  • Newell, Richard G.
  • Nordhaus, William D.
  • Pindyck, Robert S.
  • Pizer, William A.
  • Portney, Paul R.
  • Sterner, Thomas
  • Tol, Richard S. J.
  • Weitzman, Martin L.
Abstract
In September 2011, the US Environmental Protection Agency asked 12 economists how the benefits and costs of regulations should be discounted for projects that affect future generations. This paper summarizes the views of the panel on three topics -- the use of the Ramsey formula as an organizing principle for determining discount rates over long horizons, whether the discount rate should decline over time, and how intra- and intergenerational discounting practices can be made compatible. The panel members agree that the Ramsey formula provides a useful framework for thinking about intergenerational discounting. We also agree that theory provides compelling arguments for a declining certainty-equivalent discount rate. In the Ramsey formula, uncertainty about the future rate of growth in per capita consumption can lead to a declining consumption rate of discount, assuming that shocks to consumption are positively correlated. This uncertainty in future consumption growth rates may be estimated econometrically based on historic observations, or it can be derived from subjective uncertainty about the mean rate of growth in mean consumption or its volatility. Determining the remaining parameters of the Ramsey formula is, however, challenging.

Suggested Citation

  • Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Gollier, Christian & Groom, Ben & Heal, Geoffrey M. & Newell, Richard G. & Nordhaus, William D. & Pindyck, Robert S. & Pizer, William A. & Portney, Paul R. & , 2012. "How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context? The Views of an Expert Panel," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-53, Resources for the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-12-53
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-12-53.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    3. Brock, W. A. & Xepapadeas, A., 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 206837, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Jan Kersting & Vicki Duscha & Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "Cooperation on Climate Change under Economic Linkages: How the Inclusion of Macroeconomic Effects Affects Stability of a Global Climate Coalition," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    6. Moritz Drupp & Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2015. "Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate," GRI Working Papers 196a, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2018. "Discounting Disentangled," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 109-134, November.
    8. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
    9. Cees A. Withagen, 2018. "The Social Cost of Carbon and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 7359, CESifo.
    10. Moore Mark A. & Boardman Anthony E. & Vining Aidan R., 2013. "More appropriate discounting: the rate of social time preference and the value of the social discount rate," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Bernard Lapeyre & Emile Quinet, 2017. "A Simple GDP-based Model for Public Investments at Risk," Post-Print hal-01666574, HAL.
    12. Tom Huppertz & Bo P. Weidema & Simon Standaert & Bernard De Caevel & Elisabeth van Overbeke, 2019. "The Social Cost of Sub-Soil Resource Use," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
    14. Rautiainen, Aapo & Lintunen, Jussi, 2017. "Social Cost of Forcing: A Basis for Pricing All Forcing Agents," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 42-51.
    15. Lugovoy, O. & Polbin, A., 2016. "On Intergenerational Distribution of the Burden of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 12-39.
    16. Knoke, Thomas & Paul, Carola & Härtl, Fabian, 2017. "A critical view on benefit-cost analyses of silvicultural management options with declining discount rates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 58-69.
    17. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Eli P. Fenichel & Matthew J. Kotchen & Ethan T. Addicott, 2017. "Even the Representative Agent Must Die: Using Demographics to Inform Long-Term Social Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 23591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Warren, Liz & Seal, Will, 2018. "Using investment appraisal models in strategic negotiation: The cultural political economy of electricity generation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 16-32.
    20. Cees Withagen, 2022. "On Simple Rules for the Social Cost of Carbon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 461-481, June.
    21. Bernard Lapeyre & Emile Quinet, 2017. "A Simple GDP-based Model for Public Investments at Risk," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01666574, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    discount rate; uncertainty; declining discount rate; benefit-cost analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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