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Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes

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  • Gollier, Christian
Abstract
Because of the uncertainty about how to model the growth process of our economy, there is still much confusion about which discount rates should be used to evaluate actions having long-lasting impacts, as in the contexts of climate change, social security reforms or large public infrastructures for example. In this paper, we take this critique seriously by assuming that the random walk of economic growth is affected by some parametric uncertainty. We show that the same arguments proposed in the literature to justify a decreasing term structure for the safe discount rate also apply to justify an increasing term structure for the risk premium. It also implies that, under the assumption that the cumulants of the distribution of growth are statistically independent, the discount rate is increasing with maturity if and only if the beta of the investment is larger than half of relative risk aversion. Another important consequence of parametric uncertainty is that the risk premium is not proportional to the beta of the investment. We apply these general results to the case of an uncertain probability of macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro (2006), and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth à la Weitzman (2007). Finally, we apply our findings to the evaluation of climate change policy. We argue in particular that the beta of actions to mitigate climate change is relatively large, so that the term structure of the associated discount rates should be increasing.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes," LERNA Working Papers 12.28.385, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    • Handle: RePEc:ler:wpaper:26571
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    Cited by:

    1. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," LERNA Working Papers 12.14.371, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    2. Claxton, Karl & Asaria, Miqdad & Chansa, Collins & Jamison, Julian & Lomas, James & Ochalek, Jessica & Paulden, Mike, 2019. "Accounting for timing when assessing health-related policies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100038, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Freeman, Mark C. & Wagner, Gernot & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2015. "Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty: When Is Good News Bad?," Working Paper Series rwp15-002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
    6. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-49.
    7. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization Institute Working Papers 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2021. "Future-Generation Perception: Equal or Not Equal? Long-Term Individual Discount Rates for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.
    9. repec:avg:wpaper:en11709 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "Asset pricing with uncertain betas: A long-term perspective," TSE Working Papers 12-354, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    11. Frédéric CHERBONNIER & Ulrich HEGE, 2020. "Risques climatiques et règlementation financière prudentielle," Working Paper b08f5c14-94fc-4ccc-b857-6, Agence française de développement.
    12. Katz, Yuri A., 2017. "Value of the distant future: Model-independent results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 269-276.
    13. Rob Aalbers, 2013. "Optimal Discount Rates for Investments in Mitigation and Adaptation," CPB Discussion Paper 257.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Claxton, Karl & Asaria, Miqdad & Chansa, Collins & Jamison, Julian & Lomas, James & Ochalek, Jessica & Paulden, Mike, 2019. "Accounting for Timing when Assessing Health-Related Policies," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(S1), pages 73-105, April.
    15. Knoke, Thomas & Paul, Carola & Härtl, Fabian, 2017. "A critical view on benefit-cost analyses of silvicultural management options with declining discount rates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 58-69.
    16. Corneo, Giacomo, 2015. "Volkswirtschaftliche Bewertung öffentlicher Investitionen," Discussion Papers 2015/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Rob Aalbers, 2013. "Optimal Discount Rates for Investments in Mitigation and Adaptation," CPB Discussion Paper 257, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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