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Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications

Author

Listed:
  • Konrad Adler
  • Dr. Christian Grisse
Abstract
This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from price level data to explore robustness to the inclusion or exclusion of fixed effects. We find that the estimated coefficients - and therefore also the implied equilibrium values - are sensitive to (1) the combination of explanatory variables included in the model, (2) the set of currencies included in the panel and (3) the inclusion of fixed effects. Increases in government consumption and net foreign assets and improvements in the terms of trade in Switzerland relative to foreign countries are associated with a Swiss franc real appreciation, as predicted by economic theory. By contrast, several macroeconomic variables commonly thought to be linked to real exchange rates are found not to exhibit a robust relationship with Swiss franc real rates. Our findings can help policymakers in understanding the uncertainty associated with estimates of equilibrium exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Konrad Adler & Dr. Christian Grisse, 2014. "Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications," Working Papers 2014-07, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2014-07
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2014/working_paper_2014_07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Roni Frish, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Term," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.03, Bank of Israel.
    3. Arthur Korus, 2016. "Currency Overvaluation and R&D Spending," EIIW Discussion paper disbei218, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    4. Gubler, Matthias & Sax, Christoph, 2012. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Real Exchange Rate," Working papers 2012/08, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    5. Claire Giordano, 2018. "Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium exchange rates; model uncertainty; model combination; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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