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Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Chudik, Alexander
Abstract
The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. Prior to the financial crisis, current account positions of major economies such as the US, UK, Japan and China were not aligned with fundamentals. JEL Classification: C11, C33, F32, F34, F41, O52

Suggested Citation

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dieppe, Alistair & Chudik, Alexander, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: current account imbalances in the global economy," Working Paper Series 1441, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121441
    Note: 343031
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; global imbalances; model combination; model uncertainty; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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