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Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Gael M. Martin
  • Catherine S. Forbes
  • Vance L. Martin
Abstract
A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented, in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time-varying volatility in returns are considered, with posterior parameter distributions and model probabilities backed out from the option prices. Models are ranked according to several criteria, including out-of-sample fit, predictive and hedging performance. The methodology accommodates heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the option pricing errors, as well as regime shifts across contract groups. The method is applied to intraday option price data on the S&P500 stock index for 1995. Whilst the results provide support for models which accommodate leptokurtosis, no one model dominates according to all criteria considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes & Vance L. Martin, 2003. "Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2003-5
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2003/wp5-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gradojevic Nikola, 2016. "Multi-criteria classification for pricing European options," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 123-139, April.
    2. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars, 2014. "Bayesian option pricing using mixed normal heteroskedasticity models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 588-605.
    3. V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005. "Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404.
    4. Lim, G.C. & Martin, G.M. & Martin, V.L., 2006. "Pricing currency options in the presence of time-varying volatility and non-normalities," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-314, July.
    5. Catherine S. Forbes & Gael M. Martin & Jill Wright, 2007. "Inference for a Class of Stochastic Volatility Models Using Option and Spot Prices: Application of a Bivariate Kalman Filter," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 387-418.
    6. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin, 2014. "Financial contagion and asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 296-308.
    7. Anthony D. Hall & Paul Kofman & Steve Manaster, 2001. "Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets," Research Paper Series 70, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Tak Kuen Siu, 2024. "Bayesian Lower and Upper Estimates for Ether Option Prices with Conditional Heteroscedasticity and Model Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-32, September.
    10. Shu Wing Ho & Alan Lee & Alastair Marsden, 2011. "Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    11. Lisha Lin & Yaqiong Li & Rui Gao & Jianhong Wu, 2019. "The Numerical Simulation of Quanto Option Prices Using Bayesian Statistical Methods," Papers 1910.04075, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Option Pricing; Leptokurtosis; Skewness; GARCH Option Pricing; Option Price Prediction; Hedging Errors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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