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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Renee van Eyden

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Christophe Andre

    (OECD)

  • Xin Sheng

    (Anglia Ruskin University)

Abstract
In this chapter, we first estimate a dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings and stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) using Bayesian methods to disentangle the national and local factors affecting real housing returns and volatility in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia. We then use panel data regressions with heterogeneous coefficients to relate the first and second-moment of the local factors to corresponding state-level uncertainty. The latter is estimated using the average forecast error variance of a range of regional variables and 248 national-level data series in a factor augmented forecasting regression with stochastic volatility in the regression residuals and the error term for the factor dynamics. We estimate uncertainty at a forecasting horizon of one to four quarters over the periods 1977Q2 to 2015Q3 and 1991Q1 to 2015Q3, depending on model specifications. We find that all but three states register a positive and significant spillover effect from macroeconomic uncertainty to house price stochastic volatility, with Hawaii and Michigan ranking highest in terms of spillover effects. The majority of the most severely impacted states are from the Midwest region, as well as a number of states in the Southern region, known to be lower income states. A negative impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on house price returns is recorded in some states, notably from the Midwest region. Our results have important implications for homeowners, mortgage lenders and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe Andre & Xin Sheng, 2021. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Suikang Chen, 2024. "Corporate Real Estate Holding and Stock Returns: Testing Alternative Theories with International Listed Firms," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 74-102, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Housing Returns and Volatility; Dynamic Factor Model; Panel Data Estimation; US State-Level Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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