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Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel J. Benjamin

    (Cornell University and Institute for Social Research)

  • Jesse M. Shapiro

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

Abstract
We showed 10-second silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20% of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants' forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants' forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates' personal attributes (such as likability) rather than inferences about candidates' policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2009. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 523-536, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:523-536
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    Cited by:

    1. Niclas Berggren & Henrik Jordahl & Panu Poutvaara, 2010. "The Right Look: Conservative Politicians Look Better and their Voters Reward it," CESifo Working Paper Series 3310, CESifo.
    2. Ben Greiner & Werner Güth & Ro’i Zultan, 2012. "Social communication and discrimination: a video experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(3), pages 398-417, September.
    3. Berggren, Niclas & Jordahl, Henrik & Poutvaara, Panu, 2017. "The right look: Conservative politicians look better and voters reward it," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 79-86.
    4. Kolbe, Maura & Mansouri, Sasan & Momtaz, Paul P., 2022. "Why do video pitches matter in crowdfunding?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Berggren, Niclas & Jordahl, Henrik & Poutvaara, Panu, 2010. "The looks of a winner: Beauty and electoral success," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 8-15, February.
    6. James R. Van Scotter & Karina De Déa Roglio, 2020. "CEO Bright and Dark Personality: Effects on Ethical Misconduct," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 451-475, July.
    7. Hamermesh, Daniel S. & Leigh, Andrew K., 2022. "“Beauty too rich for use”: Billionaires’ assets and attractiveness," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Berggren, Niclas & Jordahl, Henrik & Poutvaara, Panu, 2006. "The Looks of a Winner: Beauty, Gender and Electoral Success," IZA Discussion Papers 2311, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Daniel Hamermesh, 2012. "Tall or taller, pretty or prettier: is discrimination absolute or relative?," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Geiler, Philipp & Renneboog, Luc & Zhao, Yang, 2018. "Beauty and appearance in corporate director elections," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Oleg V. Petrenko & Federico Aime & Jason Ridge & Aaron Hill, 2016. "Corporate social responsibility or CEO narcissism? CSR motivations and organizational performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 262-279, February.
    12. Ryan W. Buell & Tami Kim & Chia-Jung Tsay, 2017. "Creating Reciprocal Value Through Operational Transparency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1673-1695, June.
    13. Ann L. Owen & Andrew Wei, 2024. "Hostile Sexism and the 2016 Presidential Election," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 238-258, June.
    14. Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth, 2014. "The cost of racial animus on a black candidate: Evidence using Google search data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 26-40.
    15. Hamermesh, Daniel S. & Abrevaya, Jason, 2013. "Beauty is the promise of happiness?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 351-368.
    16. Todd R. Jones & Joseph Price, 2017. "Information And The Beauty Premium In Political Elections," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 677-683, October.
    17. Hamermesh, Daniel S. & Gordon, Rachel A. & Crosnoe, Robert, 2023. "“O Youth and Beauty:” Children's looks and children's cognitive development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 275-289.
    18. Chen, Daniel L. & Halberstam, Yosh & Yu, Alan, 2016. "Covering: Mutable Characteristics and Perceptions of Voice in the U.S. Supreme Court," TSE Working Papers 16-680, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2020.
    19. Ryan W. Buell & Tami Kim & Chia-Jung Tsay, 2014. "Creating Reciprocal Value Through Operational Transparency," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-115, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2015.
    20. Rebekah Herrick & Jeanette Morehouse Mendez & Ben Pryor, 2015. "Razor's Edge: The Politics of Facial Hair," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1301-1313, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

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