[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v46y2015icp11-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Barakchian, S.
Abstract
This paper estimates a two-country model comprising structural cointegrated models of Canada and the US. Using persistence profile analysis, we find that the Term Structure and a modified Fisher equation are maintained in the US model, and, the Term Structure, Fisher equation and Interest Rate Parity are maintained in the Canadian model. Then we use the model to examine the transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy. The results show that the responses of the Canadian macro variables to the US monetary policy shock are very similar to the responses of the US macro variables to the same shock: after a contractionary US monetary policy shock, output falls quickly and shows a U-shaped response, inflation falls with a delay, short-term interest rate jumps and then gradually declines and long-term interest rate increases for one year and then gradually declines. Our results show that interest rate-path-through is the major mechanism by which US monetary policy shocks are transmitted into the Canadian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:11-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314003939
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    3. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    6. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 7-24, September.
    7. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1031-1057, September.
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl, 1985. "Comparison Of Criteria For Estimating The Order Of A Vector Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 35-52, January.
    9. Bradley, Michael G. & Lumpkin, Stephen A., 1992. "The Treasury Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 449-463, September.
    10. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    11. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.
    12. Jill Ann Holman & Rebecca Neumann, 2002. "Evidence on the cross-country transmission of monetary shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1837-1857.
    13. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    14. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    16. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'A vector error-correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 613-614, December.
    17. William J. Crowder, 1997. "The Long-Run Fisher Relation in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1124-1142, November.
    18. Jamie Armour & Joseph Atta-Mensah & Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
    19. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    20. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    21. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    22. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-118, February.
    23. Atkins, Frank J. & Coe, Patrick J., 2002. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 255-266, June.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    25. Scott Benolkin & George A. Kahn, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q III), pages 5-36.
    26. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
    27. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    28. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    29. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    30. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "A VECX Model of the Swiss Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2281, CESifo.
    31. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    32. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    33. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    35. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    36. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2003. "Testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of unattended breaks and unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 21-53, November.
    37. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    38. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.
    39. David R. Johnson, 1990. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and Purchasing Power Parity between Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 839-855, November.
    40. Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.
    41. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    42. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    43. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
    44. Seungmook Choi & Mark E. Wohar, 1991. "New Evidence Concerning The Expectations Theory For The Short End Of The Maturity Spectrum," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 83-92, March.
    45. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    46. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    47. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    48. Cote, Denise & Kuszczak, John & Lam, Jean-Paul & Liu, Ying & St-Amant, Pierre, 2006. "A comparison of twelve macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 523-562, July.
    49. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    50. Bluedorn, John C. & Bowdler, Christopher, 2011. "The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 309-336, March.
    51. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    53. Ann-Marie Meulendyke, 1998. "U.S. monetary policy and financial markets," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, number 1998mpaf.
    54. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    55. Paul Boothe, 1991. "Interest Parity, Cointegration, and the Term Structure in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 595-603, August.
    56. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    57. Su, Jen-Je & Cheung, Adrian (Wai-Kong) & Roca, Eduardo, 2014. "Does Purchasing Power Parity hold? New evidence from wild-bootstrapped nonlinear unit root tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 161-171.
    58. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    59. Siklos, Pierre L. & Wohar, Mark E., 1996. "Cointegration and the term structure: A multicountry comparison," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 21-34.
    60. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    61. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
    62. Karim M. Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 163-182, January.
    63. Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
    64. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Jui-Chuan Della & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2018. "The asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 15-28.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Kabaca, Serdar & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "International transmission of quantitative easing policies: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Shazia Sana & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, 2022. "Investigating The Effectiveness Of Channels Of Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Pakistan: An Application Of Var Model, Impulse Response Function And Variance Decomposition," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 160-184, June.
    5. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Nurtac Yildirim, 2017. "Interrelations Between External and Internal Macroeconomic Factors: Empirical Evidence on Some OECD Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(2), pages 147-174.
    6. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2016. "How might the South be helped by Northern technology yet harmed by Northern money?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 83-91.
    7. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    8. Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Ali Sezin Ozdemir, 2019. "The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Georgios Georgiadis, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Globalization Institute Working Papers 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    5. Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Juan R. Hernández, 2019. "Identifying Dornbusch's Exchange Rate Overshooting with Structural VECs: Evidence from Mexico," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 207-254, December.
    6. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    8. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    9. Annari Waal & Reneé Eyden, 2014. "Monetary policy and inflation in South Africa: A VECM augmented with foreign variables," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(1), pages 117-140, March.
    10. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
    11. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    12. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    13. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Alexander Chudik & Vanessa Smith, 2013. "The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    16. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    17. Lee, Seungyoon & Park, Jongwook, 2022. "Identifying monetary policy shocks using economic forecasts in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    19. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218.
    20. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:11-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.