[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/22-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Serdar Kabaca
  • Kerem Tuzcuoglu
Abstract
What are the cross-border spillovers from major economies’ quantitative easing (QE) policies to their trading partners? We provide evidence by concentrating on spillovers from the US to Canada during the zero lower bound period when QE policies were actively used. We identify QE shocks in the US and estimate their impact on a large number of Canadian macroeconomic and financial variables. We then analyze transmission channels of foreign QE shocks to the domestic economy. Our results suggest that US QE shocks are expansionary for Canada despite a currency appreciation. This is because they spill over to domestic borrowing costs, lowering long-term rates as well as financial premiums, and increasing asset prices. We find evidence for both portfolio balance and risk channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2022. "International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 22-30, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/swp2022-30.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2023. "Quantitative easing in the US and financial cycles in emerging markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    4. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    5. Temesvary, Judit & Ongena, Steven & Owen, Ann L., 2018. "A global lending channel unplugged? Does U.S. monetary policy affect cross-border and affiliate lending by global U.S. banks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 50-69.
    6. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Dedola, Luca & Karadi, Peter & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2013. "Global implications of national unconventional policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 66-85.
    8. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    9. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    10. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    11. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
    13. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    14. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    15. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2008/023, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    17. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    18. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    19. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
    20. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    22. Maxime Leboeuf & Daniel Hyun, 2018. "Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-4, Bank of Canada.
    23. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2010. "The Empirics of International Monetary Transmission: Identification and the Impossible Trinity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 679-713, June.
    26. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    27. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2022. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 527-597, June.
    28. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    29. Carrera, César & Ramírez-rondán, Nelson R., 2020. "Effects Of Us Quantitative Easing On Latin American Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 1989-2011, December.
    30. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    31. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    32. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    33. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    34. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, April.
    35. Di Casola, Paola & Stockhammar, Pär, 2021. "When domestic and foreign QE overlap: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 404, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    36. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    37. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2018. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 545-563, March.
    38. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    39. Hesse, Henning & Hofmann, Boris & Weber, James Michael, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of asset purchases revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 115-138.
    40. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    41. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    42. Joyce, Michael, 2012. "Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies: Bank of England conference summary," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 48-56.
    43. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    44. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    45. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    46. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    47. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    48. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    49. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1827-1850, December.
    50. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    51. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    52. Renee Courtois Haltom, 2013. "Why Was Canada Exempt from the Financial Crisis?," Econ Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 22-25.
    53. Guangye Cao & Andrew Foerster, 2013. "Expectations of large-scale asset purchases," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-29.
    54. Thibaut Duprey, 2020. "Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S3), pages 236-260, October.
    55. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Roman Horvath & Klara Voslarova, 2017. "International spillovers of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: the effect on Central Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(24), pages 2352-2364, May.
    57. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish & Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(1), pages 218-243, February.
    58. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Financial Structure And Housing Booms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 522-546, April.
    59. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2016. "Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 565-569, May.
    60. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    61. Ben S. Bernanke, 2020. "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 943-983, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 859-893, August.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68, december.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    2. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    3. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Cooray, Arusha, 2020. "Monetary policy and commodity markets: Unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    7. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Kabaca, Serdar & Maas, Renske & Mavromatis, Kostas & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Optimal quantitative easing in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    10. Gan‐Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies in a commodity‐exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4627-4654, October.
    11. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    13. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    17. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2024. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1028-1044, July.
    19. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; International topics; Monetary policy transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.