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Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Stephen Morris, 2014. "The Statistical Implications of Common Identifying Restrictions for DSGE Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 738, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  3. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
  4. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
  5. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
  6. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Bond risk premia in consumption‐based models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1461-1484, November.
  7. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  8. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Antonio Diez de Los Rios, 2015. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 282-295, April.
  10. Komunjer, Ivana & Zhu, Yinchu, 2020. "Likelihood ratio testing in linear state space models: An application to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 561-586.
  11. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  12. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  13. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  14. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
  15. Schupp, Fabian & Geiger, Felix, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  16. Balter, Anne G. & Pelsser, Antoon & Schotman, Peter C., 2021. "What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 202-219.
  17. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
  18. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
  19. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Sögner, Leopold, 2020. "GMM estimation of affine term structure models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 2-15.
  20. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty And Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1317-1354, November.
  21. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
  22. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2022. "Nearly Exact Bayesian Estimation of Non-linear No-Arbitrage Term-Structure Models [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 807-838.
  23. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  24. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2015. "Understanding policy rates at the zero lower bound: insights from a Bayesian shadow rate model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1023, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  25. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
  26. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
  27. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  28. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  29. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  30. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.
  31. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
  32. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
  33. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
  34. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
  35. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  36. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
  37. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2016. "Overseas unspanned factors and domestic bond returns," Bank of England working papers 618, Bank of England.
  38. Adam Goliński & Peter Spencer, 2021. "Estimating the Term Structure with Linear Regressions: Getting to the Roots of the Problem [Term Structure Persistence]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 960-984.
  39. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "Invariance, observational equivalence, and identification: Some implications for the empirical performance of affine term structure models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 292-305.
  40. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
  41. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
  42. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
  43. Konstantin Styrin & Yulia Ushakova, 2020. "IBRN Initiative on Interactions of Monetary and Prudential Policies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(3), pages 58-74, September.
  44. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
  45. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
  46. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
  47. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Dongho Song, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Risk and Exchange Rates: Evidence from CDS Quanto Spreads," NBER Working Papers 24506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
  49. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-015 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart & Liu, Liu, 2022. "The yen–dollar risk premium: A story of regime shifts in bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  51. Almeida, Caio & Ardison, Kym & Kubudi, Daniela, 2014. "Approximating Risk Premium on a Parametric Arbitrage-free Term Structure Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
  52. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
  53. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  54. Spencer, Peter, 2016. "US bank credit spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 168-182.
  55. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2018. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 853-873, September.
  56. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
  57. Chiarella, Carl & Hsiao, Chih-Ying & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2016. "Stochastic correlation and risk premia in term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-78.
  58. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
  59. Jingnan Chen & Mark D. Flood & Richard B. Sowers, 2015. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: An Application of Uncertainty Quantification to Financial Portfolios," Working Papers 15-19, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
  60. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  61. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
  62. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Jonathan Hambur & Richard Finlay, 2018. "Affine Endeavour: Estimating a Joint Model of the Nominal and Real Term Structures of Interest Rates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  64. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
  65. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England working papers 550, Bank of England.
  66. Mirko Abbritti & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2016. "Term Structure Persistence," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 331-352.
  67. Ko, Eunmi, 2024. "An affine term structure model with Fed chairs’ speeches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  68. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
  69. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
  70. Januj Amar Juneja, 2021. "How do invariant transformations affect the calibration and optimization of the Kalman filtering algorithm used in the estimation of continuous-time affine term structure models?," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-97, January.
  71. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
  72. Sara Cecchetti, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Risk Premia in the Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, December.
  73. Frank Kleibergen & Lingwei Kong, 2023. "Identification Robust Inference for the Risk Premium in Term Structure Models," Papers 2307.12628, arXiv.org.
  74. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
  75. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 12333, Banco de la Republica.
  76. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  77. Hokuto Ishii, 2019. "Forecasting Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, July.
  78. Bouwman, Kees & Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "A practical approach to constructing price-based funding liquidity factors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-97.
  79. Januj Amar Juneja, 2022. "A Computational Analysis of the Tradeoff in the Estimation of Different State Space Specifications of Continuous Time Affine Term Structure Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 173-220, June.
  80. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  81. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  82. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2023. "The information in joint term structures of bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  83. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
  84. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  85. Juneja, Januj, 2012. "Common factors, principal components analysis, and the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 48-56.
  86. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  87. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
  88. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  89. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  90. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
  91. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
  92. Morris, Stephen D., 2017. "DSGE pileups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 56-86.
  93. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
  94. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 2016. "Local-momentum autoregression and the modeling of interest rate term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 349-359.
  95. Fang, Ming & Taylor, Stephen & Uddin, Ajim, 2022. "The network structure of overnight index swap rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  96. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
  97. Meldrum, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
  98. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
  99. Equiza, Juan & Gimeno, Ricardo & Moreno, Antonio & Thomas, Carlos, 2024. "Evaluating the yield curve effects of central bank asset purchases under a forward-looking supply factor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  100. Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto, 2023. "A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1255, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  101. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
  102. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
  103. Kladívko, Kamil & Rusý, Tomáš, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the Hull–White model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 227-247.
  104. Sara Cecchetti, 2017. "A quantitative analysis of risk premia in the corporate bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  105. Rodrigo Alfaro & Marco Piña, 2021. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 923, Central Bank of Chile.
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