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Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds

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  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Drew D. Creal
  • Peter Hördahl
Abstract
We study the dynamic properties of sovereign bonds in emerging markets and their associated risk premiums. We focus on the properties of credit spreads, exchange rates, and their interaction. Relying on the term structure of local currency bonds issued by Asia-Pacific sovereigns, we find that local variables are significant in the dynamics of currency and credit risk, and the components of bond risk premiums reflecting these risks. Local currency bonds dramatically improve the investment frontier.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Chernov & Drew D. Creal & Peter Hördahl, 2020. "Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds," NBER Working Papers 27500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27500
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    2. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Rathi, Sawan & Mohapatra, Sanket & Sahay, Arvind, 2022. "Central bank gold reserves and sovereign credit risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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    6. Jiang, Yong & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Tail connectedness between category-specific policy uncertainty, sovereign debt risk, and stock volatility during a high inflation period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    7. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic and Market Indicators in Explaining Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread Changes: Evidence from Türkiye," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 145-164, April.
    9. Jassim Aladwani, 2023. "Wavelet Coherence and Continuous Wavelet Transform - Implementation and Application to the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Oil Price for Importing and Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 531-541, July.
    10. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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