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Has Canadian House Price Growth Been Excessive?

Author

Listed:
  • Allen Head
  • Huw Lloyd-Ellis

    (Queen's University)

Abstract
The dramatic rise in the ratio of Canada's average house price to average rent has led to speculation that there is a bubble in the Canadian housing market. Others have argued, however, that the currently high level of house prices may be rationalized by the low cost of financing, given the decline in interest rates over the last two decades. In this article, we assess these arguments through the lens of a simple asset pricing model applied to city-level data. We quantify the extent to which excess growth in Canadian house prices depends on the nature of the current regime governing real interest rates, expections of rent growth in different cities and variations in property taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2016. "Has Canadian House Price Growth Been Excessive?," Working Paper 1331, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1331
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1331.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
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    7. Thwaites, Gregory, 2014. "Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86328, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Randal Verbrugge, 2008. "The Puzzling Divergence Of Rents And User Costs, 1980–2004," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 671-699, December.
    9. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    11. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    2. Benjamin Dachis & Vincent Thivierge, 2018. "Through the Roof: The High Cost of Barriers to Building New Housing in Canadian Municipalities," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 513, May.
    3. Du, Zaichao & Yin, Hua & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Foreign buyer taxes and house prices in Canada: A tale of two cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Xufeng Jiang & Zelu Jia & Lefei Li & Tianhong Zhao, 2022. "Understanding Housing Prices Using Geographic Big Data: A Case Study in Shenzhen," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; rents; interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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