[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w201603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output and unemployment, Portugal, 2008–2012

Author

Listed:
  • José R. Maria
Abstract
The Portuguese economy experienced a dramatic 2008–2012 period. Gross Domestic Product fell around 10%, while the unemployment rate jumped 8 percentage points, reaching almost 17% by 2012Q4. A semi-structural model with rational expectations—named, for ease of reference, Model Q—largely assigns such developments to “non-cyclical disturbances” in product and labour markets. The economy was also severely hit by two recessive periods in the euro area, and to a lesser extent by abnormally high risk premia. Model Q embodies a relatively robust Okun’s law, but not without important revisions in trend components. Recursive estimates over 2008-2012 include a decrease in the longrun real interest rate, shared by both Portugal and the euro area, as well as a decrease in the long-run growth rate of the trend component of output, mirrored by an increase in long-run unemployment, which raises “secular stagnation” concerns. ModelQ fits the characteristics of a small economy integrated in the credible monetary union, and is parametrized with Bayesian techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • José R. Maria, 2016. "Output and unemployment, Portugal, 2008–2012," Working Papers w201603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201603.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 2013/087, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation," Working Paper 2005/14, Norges Bank.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Patrick Blagrave & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2015. "A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 2015/079, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio & Ricardo Mourinho Félix, 2014. "Financial frictions and shock transmission: the Portuguese case," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Vanda Almeida, 2006. "Computing Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Portuguese Economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duarte, Cláudia & Maria, José R. & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2020. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 126-146.
    2. José R. Maria, 2016. "Portugal: Trends, cycles, and instability in output and unemployment over 2008-2012," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Cláudia Duarte & José R. Maria & Sharmin Sazedj, 2019. "Potential output: How does Portugal compare with the euro area over the last 40 years?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José R. Maria, 2016. "Portugal: Trends, cycles, and instability in output and unemployment over 2008-2012," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Castillo, Luis & Florián, David, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 2019-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Bulir, Ales & Hurnik, Jaromir, 2006. "The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 385-404, December.
    4. Lucian Croitoru, 2016. "Are We Systematically Wrong when Estimating Potential Output and the Natural Rate of Interest?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 128-151, June.
    5. Ghironi, Fabio & Hernandez, Kolver, 2004. "Comments on "Monetary policy rules and exchange rate flexibility in a simple dynamic general equilibrium model"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 309-313, June.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    7. Samir Jahjah & Bin Wei & Vivian Zhanwei Yue, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1275-1300, October.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:84 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Francçois Lescaroux, 2011. "The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    10. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "Fiscal Balance During Inflation, Disinflation, and Immigration: Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1996/033, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Fabrice Capoen & Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1994. "Indépendance des banques centrales, politiques monétaire et budgétaire : une approche stratégique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(1), pages 65-102.
    12. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model," Working Papers w201316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    14. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Adalbert Winkler, 1994. "The EMS crisis and the prospects for European Monetary Union," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 29(2), pages 68-74, March.
    16. Van Der Ploeg, F., 1991. "Unanticipated Inflation and Government Finance : The Case for an Independent Common Central Bank," Papers 9115, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    17. Kharitonchik Anatoly, 2024. "Optimal Monetary Policy Framework in an Emerging Market Economy under Sanctions Pressure and Restrictions on Capital Flows," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 11(58), pages 329-345.
    18. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    20. Kenen, Peter B., 1995. "What have we learned from the EMS crises?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 449-461, October.
    21. Jamus Jerome Lim, 2021. "The limits of central bank independence for inflation performance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 309-335, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.